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Over the past week, the bitcoin cryptocurrency has declined a little more. A slow decline continues after the quotes of "bitcoin" bounced off the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud in the 24-hour timeframe. Volatility now leaves much to be desired, and it is somehow unusual to observe such weak movements of the cryptocurrency. On the one hand, this could indicate a transition to a more stable state of the number one cryptocurrency in the world. However, from our point of view, this is a temporary phenomenon caused by the fact that bitcoin is quite low, so there are not many sellers at current levels. Nevertheless, no one will deny that the "bearish" trend persists, and bitcoin may continue its decline in the coming weeks and months. The descending trend line remains relevant, and bitcoin failed to gain a foothold even above the Ichimoku cloud as part of its latest correction.
The fundamental background also remains quite complex for the cryptocurrency market. We have already said that tightening monetary policy (not by one central bank but by many) is a negative factor for "bitcoin." The higher the rates, the lower the demand for risky assets and the higher the demand for safe ones. And it is impossible to attribute bitcoin to safe assets. If, at this time, even the US stock market is falling, behind which there are real assets, companies, businesses, infrastructure, and so on, what can we say about cryptocurrencies, behind which there is nothing? At a conference in New York this week, Jerome Powell assured traders that the Fed would continue to raise the rate "as long as it takes" to ensure price stability. That is, the "hawkish" attitude of the monetary committee remains, and in a week and a half, the Fed will hold a meeting at which the rate can be increased by 0.5-0.75%. Thus, bitcoin may be dealt another blow. Yesterday, the ECB raised its key rate by 0.75%. Although the ECB has less influence on the cryptocurrency market than the Fed, this is also a negative factor for cryptocurrencies. As a result, our forecast remains unchanged: bitcoin will remain under pressure until the end of this year. Today, it bounced from the 127.2% Fibonacci level, from which it bounced earlier, so the whole movement resembles an outright flat between $18,500 and $24,350.
In the 24-hour timeframe, the "bitcoin" quotes could not exceed $ 24,350 and fell below the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, the target for a new fall is now the level of $ 12,426, but the rebound from the level of $ 18,500 keeps the flat in which the cryptocurrency has been for almost three months. For a further fall with a target of $ 12,426, it is required to overcome the level of $ 18,500. It will be possible to talk about bitcoin purchases no earlier than when the price is fixed above the trend line and the Ichimoku cloud.
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