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Orders for durable goods in the United States decreased by 0.2% during the period of August. This is not the best indicator, but they expected a reduction of 0.9%. The divergence of expectations served as a stimulus for the growth of dollar positions. At the same time, data on new home sales in the US were also published, which recorded a strong growth of 28.8% in August.
In addition to macroeconomic statistics, there were quite a lot of comments from the Fed, where everyone unanimously talks about the risks associated with inflation.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans:
- The average forecast for the interest rate at the end of the year is between 4.25%–4.5% and 4.6% by the end of next year.
- For us, task number 1 is to bring inflation under control.
- The tightening of monetary policy will continue for some time.
- 4.5% unemployment in the United States is still a good level.
- At some point in time there will be a need to reduce the rate of interest rate increases. But now it needs to be further improved.
- This year, our forecasts for an objective increase in interest rates by another 100–125 basis points.
- We see long-term inflation expectations at acceptable levels.
- I expect that the level of inflation will noticeably decrease within two years.
- I expect a slight increase in GDP this year.
Former New York Fed President William Dudley:
- The Fed has made it clear that it intends to fight inflation.
- During the September meeting, the regulator clearly indicated that they are ready to raise the interest rate in order to return inflation to an acceptable level.
- Based on the forecasts of the Fed, GDP growth is expected in the coming years.
- It looks like there is no clear consensus among the Fed representatives on how long they will continue to fight inflation.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard:
- We have serious problems with inflation in the country.
- The credibility of the inflation targeting regime is under threat.
- The labor market is very strong, which gives us the opportunity to fully focus on inflation.
- We must correctly and timely respond to inflation.
- At subsequent meetings, we certainly must continue to raise the interest rate.
- The possible maximum interest rate is about 4.5%.
- We'll probably have to stick with the high stakes for a while.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari:
- We believe that the markets understand what the Fed is doing.
- Representatives of the Fed are united and committed to reducing inflation.
- We are moving at a fast pace, it is dangerous.
- The Fed is working to bring inflation back to 2%. We need to keep raising interest rates.
- We need to further tighten monetary policy to see evidence that we are succeeding in reducing inflation, and move on to slow down.
- I'm not sure that the current monetary policy is tight enough.
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker:
- We are working to achieve an acceptable level of inflation in the country.
- The housing market is a key segment in the growth of inflation
- Inflation in the country is very high in many categories
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly:
- Our goal is to return inflation to the level of 2.0%.
- The level of inflation is very high, we must properly assess the current situation.
Based on the above material, a clear "hawkish" approach is visible. The regulator intends to fight high inflation by all possible means, which they point out in their statements. For this reason, we see a further decline in the US stock market, as well as an increase in the value of the dollar against other currencies.
The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its decline after a short pullback. As a result, the local low of the downward cycle at 0.9553 was updated, which indicates the prolongation of the main trend.
The GBP/USD currency pair ignores the fact that it is treading water at historical lows. In fact, the technical signal of oversold is covered by a high rush for short positions on the part of speculators.
Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty, all hope is for the information flow, where speeches by the Fed and ECB representatives are expected again.
Stable price retention below 0.9550 will lead to a subsequent decline. In this case, the technical signal about overheating of short positions can be ignored by market participants. A possible prospect of a move is a decline towards the lows of 2001 and 2000.
An alternative scenario of market development is considered by traders in the form of another price rebound from the 0.9550 value area, as it happened at the beginning of the trading week.
In this situation, keeping the price below the 1.0600/1.0630 area in a four-hour period may well lead to a subsequent decline towards the recent local low. It is worth noting that with such overheating of short positions, spontaneous consolidations may occur, which, in turn, will lead to a technical pullback.
Until the quote is stable below the control area, the risk of the subsequent formation of the amplitude of 1.0630/1.0930 remains.
A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices.
Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market.
Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future.
The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.
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