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Another extremely volatile week, primarily for the dollar, has ended. The positive macro statistics received during it continues to support confidence in the dollar bulls.
A week earlier, the dollar index DXY reached a new local 20-year high of 114.74, but then sharply declined amid falling US bond yields. In the week that ended, the DXY continued to decline, reaching a 2-week low of 109.97. But then the situation began to improve, and the dollar was able to regain some of the previously lost positions.
This was facilitated by both positive American macro statistics and the ongoing statements by representatives of the Federal Reserve leadership about the need to continue the cycle of super tight monetary policy.
One way or another, it currently remains the toughest among the world's largest central banks, and this fact cannot be ignored when determining the direction of the dynamics of the dollar and the stock market. In the middle of next week, the minutes will be published, which is likely to shed light on some additional nuances of the Fed's September meeting.
Despite the rather strong correction observed in the last 2 weeks, the upward dynamics of the dollar persists, pushing the DXY towards more than 20-year highs near 120.00, 121.00. The breakdown of the local round resistance levels of 112.00, 113.00 will be a signal indicating the return of the dollar and the DXY index to growth.
The beginning of next week promises to be calm: in Japan, Canada, the USA, banks and exchanges will be closed on the occasion of holidays. Nevertheless, next week market participants will pay attention to the release of important macro statistics on the US, Great Britain, Germany, China.
There are no plans to publish important macro statistics on this day, and national holidays are celebrated in Japan, the USA and Canada, banks and exchanges in these countries will be closed. In this regard, trading volumes in financial markets will be lower than usual, which must be taken into account when planning your trading.
As a key indicator of the dynamics of the labor market, this report, published monthly by the National Statistics Office of Great Britain (ONS), includes data on average earnings for the last 3 months (with and without bonuses), as well as data on unemployment in the UK, also for the period of the last 3 months.
Earnings growth is a positive factor for the GBP, indirectly indicating an increase in the consumer ability of the population and stimulating the growth of inflation. A low value of the indicator is a negative factor for GBP.
It is expected that the average salary, including bonuses, has increased again over the last calculated 3 months (June-August) after growing by +5.5%, +5.2%, +6.4%, +6.8%, +7.0%, +5.6%, +4.8%, +4.3%, +4.2% in previous periods; without premiums – also increased (after an increase of +5.2%, +4.7%, +4.4%, +4.2%, +4.2%, +4.1%, +3.8%, +3.7%, +3.8% in previous periods). If the data turns out to be better than the forecast and/or previous values, then the pound is likely to strengthen. Data worse than the forecast/previous values will negatively affect the pound.
It is also expected that for 3 months (from June to August), unemployment was at the level of 3.6% (against 3.6%, 3.8%, 3.8%, 3.8%, 3.7%, 3.8%, 3.9% in previous periods). A decrease in the unemployment rate is a positive factor for the pound, an increase in unemployment is a negative factor.
Also, when drawing up a trading plan for this day, it should be borne in mind that at the time of release of data from the British labor market, an increase in volatility in pound quotes is expected.
The level of influence on the markets is from medium to high.
During his speech, Jordan will give an assessment of the current situation in the Swiss economy and, possibly, indicate further plans for the monetary policy of the central bank of the country. As its head, Jordan has more influence on the dynamics of the Swiss franc exchange rate than any other person from the country's government. Market participants will closely follow the progress of his speech in order to better understand the prospects for the monetary policy of the Swiss central bank. If Jordan does not touch on the topic of monetary policy, then the market reaction to his speech will be weak. If he makes unexpected statements, volatility in the foreign exchange market and, above all, in the quotes of the franc, will rise sharply.
The level of influence on the markets is from low to high.
The National Statistics Office of Great Britain will publish data on the country's GDP for August. This report reflects the overall economic indicators and has a significant impact on the Bank of England's decision on monetary policy issues. GDP growth means an improvement in economic conditions, which makes it possible (with a corresponding increase in inflation) to tighten monetary policy, which, in turn, usually has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency.
The release of the quarterly report, and its preliminary release, has the greatest impact on the pound quotes. Monthly data does not affect the pound so much. Nevertheless, market participants who follow the dynamics of its quotes will probably still pay attention to this release.
Data worse than the forecast/previous values will negatively affect the GBP quotes.
Previous values: +0.2%, -0.6%, +0.5%, -0.3%, -0.1%, 0%, +0.7% ( in January 2022).
The level of influence on the markets is average.
The leading indicator Producer Price Index (PPI) is one of the leading indicators of inflation in the United States, estimating the average change in wholesale producer prices. Higher production costs raise selling wholesale prices, which is ultimately passed on to the consumer, raising inflation. In normal economic conditions, a high result strengthens the dollar.
Previous values of the indicator: -0.1% (+8.7% in annual terms), -0.5% (+9.8% in annual terms), +1.1% (+11.3% in annual terms), +0.8% (+10.8% in annual terms), +0.4% (+10.9% in annual terms), +1.6% (+11.5% in annual terms), +0.9% (+10.3% in annual terms), +1.2% (+10.0% in annual terms) in January 2022. The data indicate a slight easing of inflationary pressure, including on the Fed when it makes another decision to tighten monetary policy. If the data turns out to be better than forecast, the dollar is likely to strengthen.
The level of influence on the markets is average.
A detailed report on the last FOMC meeting, giving an in-depth view of the economic and financial conditions that influenced the decision of the FOMC members. The release of the minutes is extremely important for determining the course of the current Fed policy and the prospects for an interest rate hike in the United States. The volatility of trading in financial markets during the release of the minutes usually increases, since the text of the minutes often contains either changes or clarifying details regarding the results of the last FOMC meeting of the Fed.
The soft tone of the minutes will have a positive impact on stock indices and a negative impact on the US dollar. It is worth noting, however, that following the results of the September meeting, the Fed leaders also decided to raise the interest rate immediately by 0.75%, to the level of 3.25%.
The harsh rhetoric of the Fed's leaders regarding the prospects for monetary policy will push the dollar to further growth.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
Consumer prices account for most of the overall inflation. In normal economic conditions, rising prices force the country's central bank to raise interest rates to avoid excessive inflation (above the target level of the central bank). One of the dangerous periods of the economy is stagflation. This is rising inflation with a slowing economy. In this situation, the central bank should act very carefully so as not to harm the recovery of economic growth.
The index (CPI) is published by the EU Statistics Office, is an indicator for assessing inflation and is used by the ECB Governing Council to assess the level of price stability. Usually, a positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative one weakens it.
The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the national currency (under normal conditions). Data worse than the previous value and/or forecast will have a negative impact on the euro.
Previous indicator values: +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022 (in annual terms).
Preliminary value: +10.9% in September.
The level of influence on the markets (final release) is average
Consumer prices account for most of the overall inflation. Rising prices force the central bank to raise interest rates to contain inflation, and, conversely, when inflation decreases or signs of deflation (this is when the purchasing power of money increases and the prices of goods and services fall), the central bank usually seeks to devalue the national currency by lowering interest rates to increase aggregate demand.
This indicator (Core Consumer Price Index, Core CPI) is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator to obtain a more accurate estimate (prices for this category of goods account for about a quarter of the consumer price index. They tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC usually pays more attention to the underlying data).
A high result is a bullish factor for USD, a low result is a bearish one.
Previous values: +0.6% (+6.3% YoY) in August, +0.3% (+5.9% YoY) in July, +0.7% (+5.9% YoY) in June, +0.6% (+6.0% YoY) in May, +0.6% (+6.2% in annual terms) in April, +0.3% (+6.5% in annual terms) in March.
The data is better than the forecast and the previous values should have a positive impact on the USD.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
The US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the state of the American labor market with data on the number of primary and secondary applications for unemployment benefits. The state of the labor market (together with data on GDP and inflation) is a key indicator for the Fed in determining the parameters of its monetary policy.
The result is higher than expected and the growth of the indicator indicates the weakness of the labor market, which negatively affects the US dollar. The drop in the indicator and its low value is a sign of the recovery of the labor market and may have a short-term positive impact on the USD.
It is expected that the number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits will remain at lows corresponding to the lows of the period before the coronavirus pandemic, and this is also a positive factor for the dollar, indicating the stability of the American labor market.
Previous (weekly) values according to data on initial applications for unemployment benefits: 219,000, 213,000, 208,000, 218,000, 228,000, 237,000, 245,000, 252,000, 248,000, 254,000, 261,000, 244,000, 235,000, 231,000, 232,000, 202,000, 211,000.
Previous (weekly) values according to repeated applications for unemployment benefits: 1,361,000, 1,379,000, 1,401,000, 1,401,000, 1,437,000, 1,412,000, 1,434,000, 1,430,000, 1,420,000, 1,368,000, 1,384,000, 1,333,000, 1,372,000, 1,324,000, 1,331,000, 1,309,000, 1,309,000
The level of influence on the markets is from medium to high.
The consumer price index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of retail prices and is a key indicator of inflation. Consumer prices account for most of the overall inflation. The assessment of the inflation rate is important for the management of the central bank when determining the parameters of the current monetary policy.
The indicator below the forecast/previous value may provoke a weakening of the Chinese yuan, as low inflation will force the People's Bank of China to adhere to a soft monetary policy. Conversely, the growth of inflation and its high level will put pressure on the central bank of China to tighten its monetary policy, which in normal economic conditions is assessed as a positive factor for the national currency.
Since the Chinese economy is, according to various estimates, the first in the world (at the moment), Chinese macro data can have a big impact on the financial market and investor sentiment, especially on the markets of the Asia-Pacific region.
Previous values of the indicator (in annual terms): 2.5%, 2.7%, 2.5%, 2.1%, 2.1%, 1.5%, 0.9%, 0.,9% ( in January 2022). The data indicate an acceleration in the growth of inflation.
The level of influence on the markets is from low to high.
The U.S. Census Bureau will publish the next monthly report on retail sales in the United States. This main leading indicator of consumer spending reflects the total sales of retailers. Consumer spending accounts for most of the total economic activity of the population, while domestic trade accounts for the largest part of GDP growth. A relative decrease in the indicator may have a short-term negative impact on the dollar, and an increase in the indicator will have a positive impact on the USD.
Previous values: +0.3%, 0%, +0.8%, -0.1%, +0.7%, +1.4%, +0.8%, +4.9% ( in January 2022).
The level of influence on the markets is high.
The "Retail Control Group" indicator evaluates the volume in the entire retail industry and is used to calculate price indices for most goods. A high result strengthens the US dollar, and vice versa, a weak report weakens the dollar. Data worse than the values of the previous period and/or forecast may negatively affect the dollar in the short term.
Previous values: 0%, +0.8%, +0.7%, -0.3%, +0.5%, +1.1%, -0.9%, +6.7% in January 2022.
The level of influence on the markets is high.
This index is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for most of the total economic activity. It also reflects the confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country. A high level indicates economic growth, while a low level indicates stagnation. Data worse than the previous values and/or forecast may negatively affect the dollar in the short term. The growth of the indicator will strengthen the USD.
Previous values of the indicator: 58.6, 58.2, 51.5, 50.0, 58.4, 65.2, 59.4, 62.8, 67.2 in January 2022.
The level of influence on the markets is from medium to high.
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