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Yesterday, the euro surged upward by 83 pips, coming close to the target level of 1.0804. Now the situation is threefold: since the level of 1.0804 is based on the peak of February 14 (and the trough of January 31), the euro may still move a few pips to test this strong level. However, if the market is more keenly aware of the trough on April 3, it has already reached this level and the price may reverse downward right now. The corrective movement will end, and the pair will start to fall towards the 1.0600 target. If the 1.0804 level weakens over time, the corrective movement may continue until the price reaches the MACD indicator line (1.0830).
Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of India maintained the benchmark rate at 6.50% as expected, which left market participants confused, boosted by an increase in initial jobless claims (261,000 versus 233,000 the previous week) - fear of a possible pause in the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle resurfaced. Additional turmoil came with the announcement that the eurozone officially entered a recession with the release of GDP data for the first quarter (-0.1%) and the revision of fourth-quarter GDP from 0.1% to -0.1%.
Such news doesn't actually help the euro to strengthen. Moreover, on Tuesday, a day before the Fed's rate decision, US CPI data will be released, which may further agitate investors. Therefore, it is risky to buy the euro right now. On the four-hour chart, the price is rising above both indicator lines, but the Marlin oscillator seems to have finished rising. Therefore, it is still possible to test the target level of 1.0804, but further growth would appear illogical and purely speculative.
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