15.09.202315:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/USD dynamics scenarios on September 15, 2023

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The Australian dollar has sharply strengthened today following the release of Chinese macroeconomic statistics, and the AUD/USD pair reached an intraday high and a high since September 5th at 0.6473.

However, the AUD/USD remains within the zone of medium-term and long-term bearish trends, below key resistance levels at 0.7010 (200 EMA on the weekly chart) and 0.6665 (200 EMA on the daily chart). A break of the support level at 0.6440 (200 EMA on the 15-minute chart), today's low of 0.6430, and the important short-term support level at 0.6426 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) could signal the resumption of short positions in AUD/USD.

In the case of further decline, the pair will move inside the downward channel on the weekly chart, towards its lower boundary and the levels of 0.6200 and 0.6170 (2022 lows), with intermediate targets at local support levels of 0.6360, 0.6300, and 0.6285.

In an alternative scenario, the price will break the important short-term resistance level of 0.6479 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart) and rise to the important resistance level of 0.6515 (50 EMA on the daily chart). Its breakout, in turn, may trigger further corrective rise with targets at medium-term resistance levels of 0.6625 (144 EMA on the daily chart) and 0.6665 (200 EMA on the daily chart).

However, only a break above the key resistance levels of 0.7010 (200 EMA on the weekly chart) and 0.7040 (38.2% Fibonacci level of the correction wave from 0.9500 to 0.5510) will take AUD/USD into the zone of the long-term bull market.

Support levels: 0.6440, 0.6426, 0.6400, 0.6360, 0.6300, 0.6285, 0.6200, 0.6170

Resistance levels: 0.6454, 0.6479, 0.6500, 0.6515, 0.6560, 0.6600, 0.6625, 0.6665, 0.6690, 0.6700, 0.6740, 0.6800, 0.6840, 0.6900, 0.6925, 0.7000, 0.7010, 0.7040

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