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US stock futures experienced a modest uptick following a significant decline in the session on Friday. The S&P 500 futures are currently up by 0.1%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ has seen a 0.2% rise. Oil prices have approached $95 per barrel, underscoring mounting inflationary pressures. This development could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, set to be announced on Wednesday.
European and Asian stocks plummeted in response to a more than 1% drop in the S&P 500 on Friday. Shares of Societe Generale SA plunged by 11% after their earnings targets had been downgraded. Apple's stock has risen in the US pre-market, with analysts optimistic about the early demand indicators for the latest iPhone 15.
Regarding the commodities market, the recent three-week oil price rally has already driven up Brent crude by 11%, complicating central banks' battle against inflation. The Federal Reserve's Wednesday announcement will be followed by statements from the Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan a day later.
This week is projected to be notably volatile. Earlier in September, few anticipated that the Federal Open Market Committee would consider another interest rate hike. However, now central bank leaders are expected to send out strong signals. Notably, the European Central Bank unexpectedly raised its interest rates to 4.5% last week, emphasizing a stringent approach despite a significant economic growth slowdown.
US Treasury bond yields have risen, with the policy-sensitive two-year rate surpassing 5%.
The cautious sentiment in the stock markets on Monday reflects the prevailing uncertainty. Morgan Stanley believes investors have become more wary, with increasing debates on whether the US will stave off a recession or merely delay its onset. Many investors surveyed by Morgan Stanley now view 2024 as a riskier year for assets compared to 2023.
Regarding the oil market, traders will be watching for global supply details during a speech by Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. Last week, hedge funds increased their bullish bets on both Brent and WTI crude.
On the gas market front, Chevron Corp. has resumed full production at its Australian liquefied natural gas export plant, which suffered disruptions last week, even amidst ongoing union strikes.
As for the technical outlook for the S&P 500, demand for the index has sharply decreased. Bulls need to secure the $4,469 level. By doing so, they can jump to $4,488. Another primary goal for buyers is to control the $4,515 level, thus reinforcing the bullish market. In case of a downward movement amid lower risk appetite, buyers will have to assert themselves around $4,447. A breakout of this level could quickly push the trading instrument back to $4,427, paving the way towards $4,405.
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