16.07.202406:34 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Investors lift market on Trump, rate cuts

Wall Street ended higher on Monday, extending Friday's gains, as expectations grew for a second term for Donald Trump after a failed assassination attempt raised hopes for looser regulation.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut its key interest rate as early as September also helped boost risk appetite among investors.

While all three major U.S. stock indexes closed well below their intraday highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record close.

Small, economically sensitive stocks (.RUT) and transportation stocks (.DJT) have outperformed the broader market.

The assassination attempt on Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, on Saturday in Pennsylvania appears to have boosted his chances of being elected.

A Trump presidency is expected to usher in more aggressive trade policies, further tax cuts, and deregulation in areas ranging from climate change to cryptocurrencies.

"The main event — the assassination attempt on Donald Trump — hasn't quite hit its mark," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. "GDP forecasts are unchanged, expectations for a Fed rate cut in September are unchanged, and corporate earnings are ahead of expectations."

"So the market momentum remains driven by investor optimism," Stovall added.

Investor sentiment was also supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin a rate-cutting cycle as early as September, with as many as three cuts possible before the end of the year.

"A rate cut in September is virtually guaranteed," said Ross Mayfield, an analyst at Baird Investment Strategy in Louisville, Kentucky. "We're in the same position we were seven months ago, which is the promise of a Fed rate cut without the risk of a recession. But there's still a lot riding on the Fed's actions."

Speaking to the Economic Club of Washington, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his confidence that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession, with recent data showing progress in bringing inflation back to the central bank's 2% target.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 210.82 points, or 0.53%, to 40,211.72. The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 15.87 points, or 0.28%, to 5,631.22, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 74.12 points, or 0.40%, to 18,472.57.

Among the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, energy stocks (.SPNY) posted the biggest percentage gains, while utilities (.SPLRCU) lagged.

Goldman Sachs (GS.N) more than doubled its second-quarter profit, beating analysts' expectations on solid performance in debt insurance and fixed-income trading. The brokerage's shares rose 2.6%.

Macy's Inc (MN) shares fell 11.7% after the department store ended buyout talks with Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital.

The prospect of a second term for Donald Trump sent shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) soaring 31.4%.

Cryptocurrency stocks also saw significant gains, with Coinbase Global (COIN.O), Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA.O) and Riot Platforms (RIOT.O) all rising between 11.4% and 18.3%.

Other stocks that would likely benefit from a possible second Trump term also saw gains, with gun maker Smith & Wesson (SWBI.O) and correctional facility operator GEO Group (GEO.N) up 11.4% and 9.3%, respectively.

Meanwhile, solar energy stocks fell as the prospect of a Trump election dampened expectations for U.S. renewable energy subsidies. Sunrun (RUN.O) and SolarEdge Technologies (SEDGO.O) fell 9.0% and 15.4%, respectively.

U.S.-listed Chinese stocks also fell on concerns about tighter trade restrictions under the new Trump administration. The iShares China Largecap ETF fell 2.2%.

On the New York Stock Exchange, gainers outnumbered losers 1.35-to-1; on the Nasdaq, gainers outnumbered losers 1.50-to-1.

The S&P 500 posted 65 new 52-week highs and four new lows.

The Nasdaq Composite Index posted 203 new highs and 33 new lows. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 11.07 billion shares, slightly below the 20-day average of 11.59 billion shares.

Long-term U.S. bond yields rose on speculation that Trump's policies will lead to higher government debt and inflation. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency stocks rose along with Bitcoin as Trump casts himself as a cryptocurrency advocate.

Investors expect a Trump victory to lead to further tax cuts and regulatory easing. The energy-heavy S&P 500 (.SPNY) gained 1.6%.

Traders are also betting on a second and possibly third rate cut by December.

The MSCI Global Equity Index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.18 points, or 0.02%, to 828.73, while the STOXX 600 Index (.STOXX) fell 1.02%.

Bad news from British luxury giant Burberry, with a CEO replacement and dividend suspension, and a 14.3% revenue decline at Swiss watchmaker Swatch Group, raised questions about consumer confidence.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was down 0.04% at 104.25, while the euro was down 0.01% at $1.0893. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was up 0.02% at 158.04.

The dollar fell to 157.15 during Powell's speech, its lowest since June 17, before recovering.

Bitcoin was up slightly after earlier hitting a three-week high of $63,838.86.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose 4 basis points to 4.229%, while the yield on two-year Treasuries fell half a basis point to 4.4554%.

Oil prices were slightly lower as concerns about demand in China, the world's largest importer, offset support from OPEC+ supply cuts and ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

U.S. crude was down 30 cents at $81.91 a barrel, while Brent crude was down 18 cents at $84.85 a barrel.