11.01.202409:01 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on January 11, 2024

The US Consumer Price Index is expected to rise from 3.1% to 3.2%. This means that the Federal Reserve will start lowering interest rates a bit later than previously expected, most likely starting in the summer. Furthermore, it is quite possible that the European Central Bank will be the first major central bank to start cutting interest rates. In fact, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos may have suggested this just yesterday. In theory, all of this should support the US dollar. However, the dollar has been losing ground instead. There is nothing extraordinary about this, as leading up to highly significant events, markets often move in the opposite direction of forecasts. And today's US inflation data is precisely such an event. In general, even if the US inflation rate remains unchanged, it will be enough to persuade the US central bank to delay its interest rate cuts, which will support the dollar.

Despite the fact that the EUR/USD exchange rate increased in value, the quote ended the previous day within the recent consolidation range.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI upwardly crossed the 50 middle line, thus reflecting an increase in the volume of long positions.

On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are intersecting each other, corresponding to a consolidation stage.

Outlook

The level of 1.1000 serves as resistance for the bulls, and the volume of short positions may increase around this mark. In this case, the quote may return below the level of 1.0950. However, keeping the price above the 1.1000 level, at least on the 4-hour chart, could strengthen the euro. This may point to the recovery process in the euro relative to the corrective cycle.

The complex indicator analysis revealed that in the intraday and short-term periods, technical indicators suggest a bullish bias.