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After moving in a wide-range following the European Central Bank meeting (the pound closed the day up by 12 pips), today it faces another challenge due to the release of several data on GDP, industrial production, and construction. Forecasts for key data suggest weakness: construction output for February at -0.4%, GDP at -0.4% y/y, industrial production at 0.0%, with no signs of improvement in the trade balance.
On the daily chart, the pound continues to correct higher after a sharp decline on Thursday. Today's data could bring back the downward movement - along the main trend. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is also correcting in the upper half of its own descending channel. We expect the price to aim for 1.2460 and work with the signal line of the oscillator at the lower boundary of the channel.
On the 4-hour chart, Marlin is easing tension from the oversold zone. The first resistance for the correction is the MACD line around the 1.2577 mark, which coincides with yesterday's high. If today's reports turn out to be better than forecasts, the pound could aim for 1.2596.
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