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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday rebounded from the corrective level of 50% (1.2464), favoring the American currency and falling towards the support zone at 1.2363–1.2370. A rebound of quotes from this zone will favor the British pound and some growth towards 1.2464. Consolidation of quotes below the zone of 1.2363–1.2370 increases the probability of further decline towards the next level at 1.2300.
The wave situation still needs to raise questions. The last completed upward wave failed to break the last peak (from March 21), and the last downward wave broke the low of the previous wave (from April 1). Thus, the trend for the GBP/USD pair remains "bearish," and there are no signs of its completion. The first sign of the bulls turning offensive could be the breakout of the peak from April 9, but bulls need to cover a distance of about 350 points to the zone of 1.2705–1.2715, so it is unlikely that a trend change to "bullish" can be expected in the nearest days. At the moment, even the last downward wave has not completed its construction.
On Friday, only one report could attract traders' attention – the report on retail sales volumes in March in Great Britain. Traders received information about zero growth in retail trade volumes and a 0.3% month-on-month decrease in retail sales, excluding fuel sales. Both values were weaker than traders' expectations, which caused another retreat of the bulls from the market. Although the British pound has been falling for a month and a half, I still believe it has much greater potential for decline. The sideways movement was completed by quotes breaking through the lower line. For several months in a row, bull traders expected support from the Fed in the form of an interest rate cut; however, neither in March nor (now it is obvious) in June, a monetary policy will be softened. Against this background, bears can continue to attack.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the British pound after forming two "bullish" divergences on the CCI indicator, but the growth was minimal. Both divergences have already been canceled, and no new emerging divergences are observed. The descending trend channel characterizes the current sentiment of traders as "bearish," which allows us to expect new attacks by bears towards the corrective level at 50.0%-1.2289. Bulls can count only on a small growth within the channel.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category for the last reporting week has become less "bullish." The number of long contracts held by speculators decreased by 8200 units, while the number of short contracts increased by 11433 units. The overall sentiment of major players remains "bullish" but has been weakening in recent weeks. The gap between long and short contracts is practically absent: 72 thousand versus 63 thousand.
Prospects for a decline remain for the British pound. Over the past 3 months, the number of long positions has increased from 62 thousand to 72 thousand, and the number of short positions has increased from 47 thousand to 63 thousand. This explains the fairly weak decline of the British pound. Over time, bulls will start to get rid of buy positions or increase sell positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been worked out. In recent months, bears have demonstrated their weakness and complete unwillingness to go on the offensive, but inflation reports in the US and Great Britain may give them new strength.
News Calendar for the US and Great Britain:
On Monday, the economic events calendar contains a few interesting entries. The influence of the news background on the market sentiment will be absent today.
Forecast for GBP/USD and Trader Advice:
Sales of the British pound will be possible upon closing on the hourly chart below the support zone of 1.2363–1.2370, with targets at 1.2300 and 1.2238. Purchases are more interesting today, but the growth potential of the British pound is limited, and the news background is absent. Nevertheless, options for purchases can be considered upon a rebound from the zone of 1.2363–1.2370 with a target of 1.2464. However, bulls are unlikely to be able to push the pair to this level.
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