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Regarding the GBP/USD pair, the wave analysis remains quite complex but may become clearer in the coming weeks. A successful attempt to break the Fibonacci level of 50.0% indicates the market's readiness to build a downward wave 3 or C. If this wave indeed continues to develop, the wave pattern will become much simpler, and the threat of complicating the wave analysis will disappear.
As I have already noted, the wave pattern should be simple and understandable to work with. There needs to be more simplicity and clarity in recent months. For a long time, the pair has been in a sideways trend, and only now does it have real chances for the construction of an impulsive downtrend wave.
In the current situation, my readers can expect the construction of wave 3 or C, the targets of which are located below the low of wave 1 or A. Therefore, the British pound should decline by another minimum of 300-400 basis points. With such a decline, wave 3 or C will be relatively small; however, I anticipate a much greater drop in quotes. The news background supports the US dollar, and after breaking the 1.2469 mark (50.0% Fibonacci), the psychological barrier has been lifted from sellers.
The pound is not ready to decline without news support.
The GBP/USD pair rate decreased by just a few points on Wednesday, with very weak movements in amplitude. The news background could have been stronger, considering the significance of the reports and their values. Therefore, after a fairly active Tuesday, a somewhat passive Wednesday followed. Market passivity may persist until the end of the week, as the news background will once again be weak over the remaining two days.
On Thursday and Friday, we await reports on GDP, initial jobless claims, personal income and spending, personal consumption expenditure index, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. All reports are American. Although individual reports, given strong values, can trigger market reactions, we shouldn't see significant price changes in the pair by the end of this week. There will be no interesting events in the UK.
Demand for the British pound may begin to decline again soon. For the GBP/USD pair, the 1.2467 mark is currently important, corresponding to 50.0% Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt to break this mark will indicate the market's readiness for a new wave of declining demand, even without the construction of a strong corrective wave. The news background and the wave pattern continue to point to a decline in the British pound, so I consider only selling the pair. The Bank of England may begin to lower interest rates as early as this summer, while a similar move from the Fed may have to be awaited for a very long time. This is a key factor in the decline of the British currency.
General conclusions.
The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair still suggests a decline. At the moment, I continue to consider selling the pair with targets below the 1.2039 mark, as wave 3 or C has begun its development. A successful attempt to break the 1.2472 mark, corresponding to 50.0% Fibonacci, indicates the long-awaited market readiness to build a downward wave.
On a larger wave scale, the wave pattern is even more revealing. The downward correctional trend segment continues to develop, and its second wave has taken on an elongated form - at 76.4% of the first wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break this mark could have led to the beginning of the construction of wave 3 or C.
The main principles of my analysis:
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