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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair fell to the 76.4% retracement level at 1.0676, rebounded from it, and turned in favor of the euro. Thus, the upward movement of quotes could continue on Monday towards the next Fibonacci level of 61.8% at 1.0722. A rebound from this level would favor the US dollar and resume the decline towards 1.0676. Consolidation above 1.0722 would increase the likelihood of further growth towards the next retracement level of 50.0% at 1.0760.
The wave pattern remains clear. The new downward wave has already broken the low of the previous wave from June 11, while the last completed upward wave failed to break the previous high. Thus, the bearish trend continues to form. In the near future, the information background should not hinder the bears from continuing their attacks. The first sign of the end of the bearish trend will be breaking the high of the last upward wave from June 12. However, it is unlikely that the bulls will be able to push the pair up to 1.0850 in the coming days.
The information background on Friday could have been stronger, but the bears continued their attacks as they had already received all the necessary information. Recall that the ECB has started easing monetary policy, while the Fed signaled once again that it has no intention of starting to cut interest rates. Therefore, the bears can continue their attacks if the American Central Bank is not prepared to ease its policy. Today, ECB President Christine Lagarde will be speaking in the Eurozone. I don't want to speculate on what she might tell the market since she spoke just a week ago at the central bank meeting press conference. All the most important points have already been made. However, it is not in the ECB's interest to see the euro's exchange rate fall. Christine Lagarde might indicate that the regulator will not rush to cut rates, which could dampen the bears' enthusiasm.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues its decline after forming a bearish divergence with the CCI indicator and has consolidated below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0714. The decline in quotes may continue towards the 76.4% retracement level at 1.0613. A bullish divergence is emerging with the RSI indicator, which, combined with a close above 1.0714, could favor the EU currency and some growth towards the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.0794.
In the last reporting week, speculators closed 1,260 long contracts and opened 22,966 short contracts. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group turned bearish several weeks ago, and sellers are again increasing their positions. The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 187,000, while short contracts total 144,000. The gap is narrowing.
The situation will continue to shift in favor of the bears. I see no long-term reasons to buy the euro, as the ECB has started to ease monetary policy, which will lower the yields on bank deposits and government bonds. In America, these yields will remain high for at least several months, making the dollar more attractive to investors. Even according to the COT reports, the potential for the euro to decline looks significant. If the sentiment among large players is still bullish and the euro is falling, where will the euro be when the sentiment turns bearish?
The economic events calendar for June 17 contains only one entry, but Christine Lagarde's speech is always important. The impact of the information background on trader sentiment today could be moderate.
Selling the pair was possible upon closing below the support zone of 1.0785–1.0797 with targets of 1.0722 and 1.0676. Both targets have been met. New sales can be considered on a rebound from the 1.0722 level with targets of 1.0676 and 1.0602. Buying the euro was possible on a rebound from the 1.0676 level on the hourly chart with targets of 1.0722 and 1.0760.
Fibonacci level grids are built from 1.0602 to 1.0917 on the hourly chart and from 1.0450 to 1.1139 on the hourly chart.
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