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![Exchange Rates 01.07.2024 analysis]()
On Monday, amid uncertainty about the path of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, traders were reluctant to open aggressive directional positions. This leads to a restrained price movement in a narrow range. Key US inflation data released on Friday confirmed market expectations for a September Fed rate cut, followed by another cut in December. Nevertheless, recent hawkish comments from influential FOMC members suggest that the Central Bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates.The US dollar is likely to continue its corrective pullback after a two-month high, thereby serving as a tailwind for the price of the precious metal. In addition, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over the final result of the shocking early elections in France provide some support for gold as a safe haven asset, too. And Trump's increasing chances of becoming president have raised concerns about the introduction of aggressive tariffs that could fuel inflation, triggering an increase in interest rates. Consequently, this pushes US Treasury yields to multi-week highs and limits the significant growth potential of the non-yielding yellow metal.From a technical perspective, Friday's failure from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) breakout point favors the bears.Nevertheless, the lack of any subsequent selling requires some caution before positioning for a further price decline.The 50-day SMA, tied to the $2337 area, is an immediate obstacle and a key pivot point. A sustained break above it would allow the bulls to reclaim the round level of $2400. The momentum could extend further and approach the historical high in the $2450 area, reached in May.
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