05.07.202405:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 5, 2024

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EUR/USD

Yesterday, most European currencies ended the day with gains. This growth can be seen as part of the momentum from Wednesday. Today, U.S. employment data will be released, and the dollar has options on how to react. The forecast for June nonfarm payrolls is 194K versus 272K in May, but there is a high probability that the data may show weak results. Yesterday, we described one possible scenario: the euro might make a false upward move and then fall to the target range of 1.0636/50 and then to 1.0595. The nearest resistance is the weekly MACD line at the 1.0840 level. The initial move could be higher.

Over the past two days, we noticed that the global stock market has eased somewhat—major indexes have reached strong technical resistance levels, and Asian markets are down today. The likelihood of a decline in the U.S. stock market with the release of weak data has increased. This will be a key sign of market participants moving away from risk, followed by the euro's decline.

If optimism prevails, the euro needs to consolidate above 1.0840 to reach the target level of 1.0905. That would mean that the growth won't just be an emotional response and would continue into next week.

On the 4-hour chart, the price has reached Wednesday's peak, but the Marlin oscillator is moving horizontally. From a technical standpoint, this is the only hint of a possible price reversal today.

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