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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the upper line of the downward trend channel on Monday. It then fell almost to the support zone of 1.2788–1.2801. Today, the pound is once again near the upper line of the channel. A new rebound will again lead to a decline towards the zone of 1.2788–1.2801. A rebound of the quotes from this zone will allow for expectations of a reversal in favor of the pound and some growth toward the corrective level of 100.0% – 1.2892.
The wave situation has slightly changed. The last completed downward wave (which began forming on June 12) managed to break the low of the previous downward wave, and the last upward wave managed to break the peak of the previous upward wave. Thus, currently, we are dealing with a "bullish" trend. The growth of the pound may continue, but now traders are forming a corrective downward wave. A change to a "bearish" trend is not yet in question from the perspective of waves. For this, the pair needs to break the last low from July 2. Whether the bears have enough strength to reach this level is a big question.
There was no information background on Monday, but the pound is gradually entering a very interesting four-day period for itself. Tomorrow and the day after – meetings of the U.S. and British central banks. On Friday, we will have crucial data on the labor market and unemployment in the U.S. In my opinion, the bulls attacked long and hard enough to resume the pair's growth this week. However, if the Bank of England refuses to lower the rate, Powell's dovish rhetoric, and weak data from the U.S., all this can force the bulls to resume the offensive. The "bullish" trend cannot last forever, but for a "bearish" trend to begin, there needs to be a strong informational background for the dollar and a desire for the bears to attack. If the informational background is weak, then there will be no motivation. I wouldn't interpret the fixation of quotes above the channel as a resumption of the "bullish" trend.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the level of 1.3044 with the formation of a "bearish" divergence on the RSI indicator. Earlier, the RSI indicator entered the overbought zone. Thus, several sales signals on the senior chart were received. The decline process can now continue towards the 61.8% corrective level at 1.2745. On the hourly chart, the bears closed below the trend channel, which also allows for the continuation of the pair's decline.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became even more "bullish" over the past reporting week. The number of long positions in the hands of speculators increased by 5,202, and the number of short positions decreased by 4,079. The bulls still have a solid advantage. The gap between the number of long and short positions is already 142 thousand—188 thousand versus 46 thousand.
The prospects for a fall remain for the pound, but the COT reports still indicate the opposite. Over the past 3 months, the number of long positions has grown from 98 thousand to 188 thousand, and the number of short positions has decreased from 54 thousand to 46 thousand. Over time, professional players will start to get rid of long positions or increase short positions again, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been worked out. However, it should not be forgotten that this is just a hypothesis. Technical analysis suggests a very likely decline in the near future, but this does not mean that the decline will last several months or half a year.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:
USA – JOLTS Job Openings (14:00 UTC).
On Tuesday, the economic event calendar contains only one entry, but an important one. The impact of the informational background on market sentiment today will be moderate in strength and only in the second half of the day.
Forecast for GBP/USD and Trading Advice:
Sales of the pound were possible after the rebound from the level of 1.3044 on the 4-hour chart, with the target being the lower boundary of the upward channel. Now, these sales can be kept open, with the target being the 1.2788–1.2801 area, which was almost reached yesterday. Purchases will be possible with a rebound on the hourly chart from the 1.2788–1.2801 area with a target of 1.2892.
The Fibonacci levels are built from 1.2892–1.2298 on the hourly chart and from 1.4248–1.0404 on the 4-hour chart.
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