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Of course, everyone was expecting some gradual deterioration in the state of the U.S. labor market. But nobody could have nightmares about what happened last Friday. First and foremost, the unemployment rate jumped from 4.1% to 4.3%, which was expected to remain unchanged. Furthermore, only 114,000 new jobs were created in the non-agricultural sector instead of the forecasted 190,000. Moreover, previous data was revised downward from 206,000 to 179,000. Clearly, unemployment will continue to rise. After that, the media started to say there would be no soft landing on the American economy, and everything would turn into a deep recession. Accusations immediately started flying at the Federal Reserve, which allegedly delayed the beginning of monetary policy easing too long. Rumors quickly spread that at the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the interest rate would be lowered not by 0.25% but by 0.50%. Against this backdrop, the dollar naturally began to fall rapidly. Considering that there is now active discussion about the need to reduce interest rates by even 0.75%, the dollar will remain under pressure and is likely to weaken even further.
Amid the information and news flow, the volume of long positions in the euro significantly strengthened. As a result, the EUR/USD pair almost fully recovered relative to the recent corrective move.
Due to speculative price movements, the RSI indicator reached the overbought zone in the 4-hour chart, indicating an excessive number of long positions.
Regarding the Alligator indicator on the same time frame, the moving average lines point upwards, corresponding to an upward cycle.
From a technical perspective, there is a local overheating of long positions in the euro, which allows for the formation of a pullback. As for the next stage of growth, testing the local high of July is necessary. In this case, breaking through the psychological level of 1.1000 is possible.
Complex indicator analysis signals a pullback in the short term. The indicators point to an upward cycle in the intraday period.
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