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Nothing lasts forever. Any trend needs a correction. Gold consumption in China's jewelry industry fell 27% in the first half of 2024, as the biggest problem became the rise in prices to record peaks with almost no pullbacks. Total demand for the precious metal fell by 5.6% to 523.8 tons. Where there is a void, the West is gradually replacing the East, but this does not mean a correction in XAU/USD won't happen.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's fiery speech at Jackson Hole about the imminent start of monetary easing by the US central bank allowed gold to set a new record, but then a natural process of selling on facts began. The XAU/USD quotes already account for the Fed's varying pace of rate cuts compared to other central banks, so the ideal environment for the precious metal may deteriorate. We are talking about the dollar's weakness and falling US Treasury bond yields.
This combination allowed asset managers to increase their net long positions in gold to the highest levels in four years. Holdings of the world's largest specialized exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, have been rising for eight consecutive weeks, the longest period of capital inflow since mid-2020.
Gold Dynamics and ETF Holdings
However, excessive speculative longs may become a thorn in gold's side. Their unwinding at the first sign of trouble could lead to quotes declining below the $2500 per ounce mark. Especially since the market increasingly realizes that the Fed's anticipated scale of monetary easing, as implied by derivatives, is clearly overstated. A 100 basis point cut in the federal funds rate in 2024 could still be explained by a recession. However, how can there be a recession when US consumer confidence soars to a six-month high?
Yes, in 2023 and the first half of 2024, the precious metal made gains even amidst a rising dollar and increasing US Treasury yields. Back then, it was supported by active purchases from central banks and strong demand from Asia, led by China. But now, with gold in Shanghai trading at a discount to London, relying on this support no longer makes sense.
Dynamics of American Consumer Confidence
The US dollar can capitalize on the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election and geopolitics. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, and the USD index may rise due to increased demand for safe-haven assets.
At the same time, the long-term outlook for the precious metal remains bullish. By the end of 2025, the federal funds rate could fall to 3.5% amid a slowdown in the US economy. Demand in China is expected to recover gradually, and ETF holdings will increase.
Technically, on the daily chart of gold, the combination of the Three Indians and 1-2-3 patterns increases the risk of a correction. If the bulls fail to push quotes above $2515 per ounce, the risks of a continued decline will increase. It makes sense to hold shorts formed from this level.
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