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Today, the USD/CAD pair broke its two-day winning streak.
The decline in the USD/CAD pair can be attributed to the commodity-linked Canadian dollar, which is receiving support from rising crude oil prices, given that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States. For the second consecutive day, the price of WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil continues to rise, trading above $77.00 per barrel as of the time of writing. This increase is driven by supply issues in the Middle East. Concerns about reduced Libyan oil supplies and Iraq's plans to cut production are supporting oil prices.
The decline in the USD/CAD pair may be limited as the U.S. dollar, following stronger-than-expected economic data released on Thursday, is attempting to hold on to its recent gains. However, dovish comments from the Federal Reserve could restrain further upward movement in the dollar.
Yesterday, Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and known as a leading hawk within the FOMC, indicated that it may be time to consider rate cuts due to further declines in inflation and higher-than-expected unemployment. However, he suggests waiting for confirmation from the upcoming monthly employment report and the next two inflation reports before the September Fed meeting. Today, attention should be paid to the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index, as it may provide clues about the future direction of U.S. interest rates during the North American session.
From a technical perspective, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is gradually entering the oversold zone, which could halt the pair's decline.
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