04.09.202408:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for EUR/USD on September 4, 2024

The situation on the foreign exchange market remained unchanged, although the U.S. manufacturing sector business activity index has decreased from 49.6 points to 47.9 points, which was slightly worse than the preliminary estimate of 48.0 points. However, this indicator has a feeble impact. Because of this, the market continued to stagnate. And it seems that today, the stagnation will continue. Final data on the business activity index in the services sector and the composite business activity index also have a very insignificant impact. The data on job openings in the United States, although they precede the release of labor market data, are also considered minor indicators because it is quite challenging to conclude the state of the labor market from this data. The market will be waiting for tomorrow's employment data.

The EUR/USD pair is moving within the upper deviation of the psychological level of 1.1000/1.1050 for three consecutive days, indicating a sustained corrective cycle from the local high of the medium-term trend.

In the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator has left the oversold zone but remains in the sellers' area between 30 and 50.

Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines (MA) point downward, which corresponds to the corrective phase.

Expectations and Prospects

At this stage, the psychological area serves as a support for sellers, negatively affecting the subsequent construction of the corrective cycle. Assuming the scenario of prolonging the correction, a series of actions is necessary, the first being a shift of the current stagnation into the lower area of the psychological level—these values are 1.0950/1.1000, followed by a consolidation below it. As for the bullish scenario, restoring the euro's rate could well occur in case of a price rebound from the psychological level's edge, with the price consolidating above 1.1100 during the day.

The complex indicator analysis indicates stagnation in the short-term and intraday periods; the indicators are unstable. Indicators point to an upward trend in the medium term.