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The price test at 1.3069 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair fell even below the target level of 1.3026, allowing for a profit of around 40 pips. Yesterday, the weak UK GDP report was the first warning sign for sellers. The U.S. inflation data further strengthened the dollar's position, which became the final blow for pound buyers hoping for the pair's recovery. Today, there is no data in the first half of the day, and there are no chances for the pound to recover in the short term. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the realization of scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Scenario No 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.3054 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the level of 1.3104 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3104, I plan to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level. A substantial rise in the pound today seems unlikely. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3029 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3054 and 1.3104.
Scenario No 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after testing the 1.3029 level (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.2984 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Selling the pound is possible as part of continuing the downward trend. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3054 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3029 and 1.2984.
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaForex lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaForex, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
