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Today, prices of U.S. crude oil WTI - West Texas Intermediate - are regaining positive momentum after yesterday's modest pullback, lifting the commodity above $71.00 and building on a recent recovery from the lowest level seen in 2023.
The Federal Reserve's decision yesterday to initiate a cycle of monetary easing by cutting borrowing costs by 50 basis points fueled optimism about increased economic activity and consequently, an increase in demand for energy resources. Additionally, renewed U.S. dollar selling pressure has been a key driver of rising crude oil prices.
Moreover, the risk of further escalation in tensions in the Middle East, especially after Wednesday's explosions involving equipment used by the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, added further support to crude oil prices. In addition, according to government data released yesterday, there was a greater-than-expected reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories, though this decline was offset by a buildup of distillate and gasoline stocks.
Furthermore, lingering concerns about weak global demand, particularly from China, may limit further crude oil price increases. Earlier in September, amid ongoing concerns about China's economic slowdown, OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and the IEA (International Energy Agency) lowered their demand growth forecasts. After the release of weak macroeconomic data from China over the weekend, which pointed to signs of weakness in the world's second-largest economy and biggest oil importer, these concerns resurfaced.
As a result, this data suggests caution for aggressive oil buyers. They should consider waiting before positioning themselves for a continuation of the uptrend seen in the past week. Moreover, from a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart have not yet moved into positive territory.
Now, traders looking to take advantage of short-term opportunities should focus on the release of U.S. macroeconomic data, including weekly initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and existing home sales data.
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