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The business activity indices in Europe were expected to remain broadly unchanged, while the United States would show a significant decline. However, the outcome was somewhat different. Initially, the composite business activity index in the Eurozone dropped from 51.0 to 48.9. This decline was due to a decrease in the services activity index, from 45.8 to 44.8, and the manufacturing index, from 52.9 to 50.5, despite forecasts predicting an increase to 53.0. These figures immediately strengthened the dollar, which only slowed down after the opening of the US trading session. The composite index of business activity in the United States was expected to decline from 54.6 points to 53.0 points, but it only decreased to 54.4. This was despite the manufacturing index dropping from 47.9 to 47.0, with a forecast of 48.0. The key factor was the services activity index, which, instead of decreasing from 55.7 to 54.0, rose to 55.4.
Overall, business activity is declining on both sides of the Atlantic. While this was a complete surprise in Europe, the situation in the United States is somewhat better than expected.
The economic calendar is generally empty until the end of the current week. Thus, the only thing the market can rely on is media reports. The market will likely consolidate around the already achieved values if no sensational news arises.
Despite a slight pullback in the euro's exchange rate against the dollar, the quotation remains near the local high of the upward trend.
In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator has fallen below the 50 midpoint, indicating a retracement. However, this does not mean the sellers have broken the upward cycle.
Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines have locally changed direction due to the pullback.
Expectations and Prospects
For the next phase of growth, it is necessary to stabilize the quotation above the 1.1200 mark. In this scenario, there is a high probability of surpassing the high set in July 2023, which is 1.1276. Otherwise, we can expect a range-bound movement around the current values.
The complex indicator analysis indicates a retracement in the short-term and intraday periods. The indicators are oriented towards an upward trend in the medium term.
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