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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair fell to the 1.3357 level on Friday, rebounded from it, rose to the 1.3425 level, and then rebounded from it again. As a result, the pair is now trading within a sideways range and is currently moving horizontally. I don't believe this movement will persist for long, as several important events are expected today, and the week is also packed with significant developments. It will be quite challenging for traders to maintain the pair within a 70-point range. However, the market has found equilibrium at this moment.
The wave situation is quite clear. The last completed downward wave (September 6-11) broke the low of the previous wave, while the upward wave that has been forming over the past few weeks broke the peak of the previous wave, which was at the 1.3234 level. Thus, the bearish trend ended before it had properly begun. Currently, there are no signs of a new bearish trend. For the current bullish trend to break, the pair would need to drop by 340-360 points.
On Friday, fundamental factors supported the U.S. dollar, but the bears remain too weak to push the pair down by even 100 points. This week, the bears are likely to remain in a difficult position, as most of the scheduled events are not expected to support the U.S. dollar. As early as today, traders will be looking for a "dovish" tone from Jerome Powell. However, it's unlikely we'll get this, as the cautious Powell will probably prefer to wait for upcoming unemployment and labor market reports before making any assumptions about the FOMC's decision in November. Nevertheless, the market will be searching for dovish hints in his speech, and if any are found, the bulls might launch a new offensive. The situation is currently favorable for them, and the dollar doesn't need many reasons to decline. For now, a correction toward the 1.3259 level is the most likely outcome if there is a close below the 1.3357 level.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3314. There was a new reversal in favor of the pound, and the upward movement resumed towards the next level of 1.3642. The RSI and CCI indicators have formed bullish divergences, which increase the likelihood of further growth. However, if the pair consolidates below the 1.3314 level, it could signal the beginning of a new bearish trend and suggest a potential drop towards the 1.3044 level.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of non-commercial traders has become significantly more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 30,503, while short positions increased by 6,490. Thus, for two weeks, professional traders had been reducing long positions and increasing short positions, but now they have reverted to their previous stance. Bulls still hold a significant numerical advantage. The gap between the number of long and short positions is 87,000: 155,000 versus 68,000.
In my opinion, the British pound still has potential for decline, but the COT reports currently suggest otherwise. Over the past three months, the number of long positions increased from 102,000 to 155,000, while the number of short positions rose from 58,000 to 68,000. I believe that over time, professional traders will start reducing their long positions or increasing their short positions, as all potential factors driving the buying of the British pound have already played out. However, technical analysis currently indicates a bullish trend.
News Calendar for the US and the UK:
UK – GDP for the second quarter (06:00 UTC)
US – Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell (17:55 UTC)
On Monday, the economic calendar includes two important events. The impact of these news releases on market sentiment could be strong for the remainder of the day.
Forecast for GBP/USD and Trading Tips:
Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.3425 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3357 and 1.3259. These trades can remain open. Purchases could have been considered after a bounce from the 1.3357 level with a target of 1.3425, which has also been achieved.
The Fibonacci levels were plotted from 1.2892 to 1.2298 on the hourly chart and from 1.4248 to 1.0404 on the 4-hour chart.
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