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In my morning forecast, I focused on the level of 1.1077 and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. The rise and subsequent formation of a false breakout around 1.1077 provided a sell signal for the euro. However, after a 15-point decline, the pressure on the pair eased. The technical picture was not revised for the second half of the day.
To open long positions on EUR/USD:
The Eurozone unemployment report matched economists' expectations, which was predictable. This prevented the euro from breaking above 1.1077, keeping the pair within the sideways channel after yesterday's active sell-off. In the second half of the day, a significant labor market report is due. The ADP employment change will impact the currency market, and if the data is strong, the pressure on the euro will return. We will also pay attention to the statements from FOMC members Michelle Bowman and Thomas Barkin, whose recent remarks have been bullish for the U.S. dollar. In case of a bearish reaction to their speeches and strong U.S. data, a false breakout near 1.1043 would present a good opportunity to open new long positions, aiming for a return to 1.1077—resistance, which could not be broken earlier in the day. A breakout and a retest of this range from the upper side will lead to an upward move with a chance to test 1.1109. The most distant target is 1.1143, where profits will be taken. If EUR/USD declines and there's no activity near 1.1043 in the second half of the day, the pressure on the pair will only increase, leading to another significant sell-off. In that case, I will only enter after a false breakout at the next support level of 1.1007. I plan to open long positions on a rebound from 1.0952, aiming for a 30-35 point upward correction within the day.
To open short positions on EUR/USD:
Sellers have a chance to push the euro lower, especially after the active defense of the 1.1077 level earlier in the day. If there is no sharp upward reaction after the U.S. data today, I will focus on protecting the 1.1077 resistance. A false breakout there, similar to the one discussed above, will be an appropriate signal to open short positions aiming for a correction toward the 1.1043 support level. I expect new and active buyer actions around this level. A breakout and consolidation below 1.1043, followed by a retest from the bottom, will provide another selling opportunity, targeting the 1.1007 level. The most distant target is the 1.0979 level, which would establish a new bearish trend. There, profits will be taken. If EUR/USD rises and bears fail to defend the 1.1077 level, bulls may attempt to regain control of the market. In this case, I will postpone selling until the next resistance at 1.1109, where the moving averages, which favor sellers, are located. I will also sell there, but only after a failed breakout. I plan to open short positions on a rebound from 1.1143, aiming for a 30-35 point downward correction.
The COT (Commitment of Traders) report for September 24 showed a slight increase in both long and short positions, maintaining a balance of power on the side of risk asset buyers. Clearly, the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 0.5% continues to attract new euro buyers into the market and forces a sell-off of the dollar, as there are still significant chances for more aggressive monetary easing in November. The Fed's future actions will depend on labor market data, and a large number of such reports will be released soon. These will be my focus for building a strategy on the euro. However, this does not cancel the medium-term upward trend in the pair, and the lower the pair goes, the more attractive it becomes for buying. The COT report showed that long non-commercial positions increased by 5,514 to 187,795, while short non-commercial positions grew by 3,462 to 116,097. As a result, the gap between long and short positions widened by 1,960.
Indicator Signals:
Moving Averages:
Trading is taking place below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a decline in the euro.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages considered by the author are based on the hourly H1 chart, differing from the classic daily moving averages on the D1 chart.
Bollinger Bands:
In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator near 1.1055 will act as support.
Indicator Descriptions:
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