08.10.202414:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Relevancia 04:00 2024-10-09 UTC--4

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Today marks the fifth consecutive day that gold has been trading with a negative bias, approaching the support of the current trading range at $2630.

Investors are reducing their expectations regarding a significant cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in November, which is considered a key factor undermining demand for the precious metal. However, due to moderate weakness in the U.S. dollar, the decline remains somewhat tempered.

In addition, ongoing geopolitical risks from the continuing conflicts in the Middle East provide some support for gold as a safe-haven asset. Traders may want to avoid aggressive directional positions at this moment and instead wait for the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. Additionally, the results of the U.S. Consumer Price Index and the U.S. Producer Price Index, which will be published on Thursday and Friday, respectively, will affect the short-term dynamics of the U.S. dollar, providing new momentum for the XAU/USD.

From a technical standpoint, the lower boundary of the short-term trading range around $2630 protects against an immediate decline. A convincing breakout below this level would trigger technical selling, pulling the XAU/USD below the round level of $2600 toward the next relevant support at around $2560. A corrective decline could continue further to the next significant support in the area of $2532 on the way to the psychological level of $2500.

Nevertheless, the oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, favoring bullish traders. The area between $2670 and $2672 will continue to act as an immediate barrier. Following that, the historical high reached in September, around $2686, and the round level of $2700 came into play. If the latter level is surpassed, the situation would be viewed as a new trigger for bulls, setting the stage for the continuation of the well-established multi-month upward trend.

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