08.10.202414:53 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, Tuesday, the Japanese yen remains at the forefront against the US dollar for the second consecutive day, but it lacks confidence in its growth. Comments from Japanese officials made the day before have revived fears of intervention. Alongside the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, these comments have become a key factor driving the price movement of the currency pair. Additionally, a slight decline in the U.S. dollar is putting some pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

Nevertheless, decreasing chances of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in 2024 are keeping yen bulls from opening positions. Furthermore, investors are lowering their expectations for a more aggressive easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. This helps to limit the losses of the U.S. dollar against the USD/JPY pair ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, which will be released on Wednesday, followed by U.S. inflation data on Thursday and Friday.

From a technical standpoint, last week's breakout above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since mid-July, along with the subsequent upward movement, was viewed as a new trigger for bulls. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are gaining positive momentum, indicating that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is upward. Therefore, any further decline could be viewed as a buying opportunity and is likely to remain limited by the 147.00 level, which should now act as a key turning point.

On the other hand, a sustained move back above the round level of 148.00 could trigger technical buying, pushing the USD/JPY pair up to the resistance zone at 148.70 on the way to the round level of 149.00. Some subsequent buying beyond the weekly high, around 149.15, would confirm the positive outlook, allowing bulls to reclaim the psychological level of 150.00.

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