09.10.202407:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on October 9? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday. On the one hand, this means that there is no pressure pushing prices further down. On the other hand, during the first two trading days of the week, both currency pairs had a chance to correct, but they did not take it. Thus, the decline could very well continue even without a correction, but new technical signals are needed. In any case, we do not expect significant movements today.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Wednesday's fundamental events, we can highlight several speeches by Federal Reserve's Monetary Committee members, including Lorie Logan, Thomas Barkin, Austan Goolsbee, and others. Some U.S. central bank officials support a rate cut of 0.5% in November, but not all. Therefore, the market is closely monitoring who else will join the "dovish wing." The more that join, the less likely the dollar's further growth becomes. However, it is also important to remember that the market has already wholly or almost entirely priced in the entire upcoming cycle of monetary policy easing. There are no new reasons for a decline in the dollar.

General Conclusions:

On the third trading day of the new week, the euro and the pound may start to correct. However, they had the same opportunity during the first two days of the week but did not do so. Market volatility is low, and the prospect of a 0.5% rate cut by the Fed in November is not putting pressure on the dollar. If good sell signals emerge, further declines in both currency pairs can be expected even without a correction.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes for the signal to form (bounce or break through the level). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat market, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trading positions should be opened during the period from the start of the European session until the middle of the US session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. In the hourly time frame, it is recommended to trade based on MACD indicator signals only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (between 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.
7. Upon passing 15-20 pips in the intended direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Support and Resistance Price Levels: These levels serve as targets when opening buy or sell positions. They can also be used as points to set Take Profit levels.

Red Lines: These represent channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): The histogram and signal line serve as a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of trading signals.

Important Speeches and Reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, trading should be done with maximum caution during their release, or you may choose to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

For Beginners Trading on the Forex Market: It's essential to remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management is key to achieving long-term success in trading.