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The market seems to no longer doubt that the European Central Bank will again lower the refinancing rate today—by another 25 basis points, from 3.65% to 3.40%. This decision is already being priced into the value of the euro, which has significantly depreciated recently, and there's no doubt that it's oversold. Therefore, even after the ECB announces its decision, there's no need to expect a noticeable weakening of the euro. Given the market's apparent need for at least a local correction, it's likely that soon after the ECB's governing council meeting, we will see the euro rise. This is especially likely if Christine Lagarde announces that inflation targets have been met, meaning that further monetary policy easing is not expected. Such a scenario is quite possible, as preliminary inflation data suggests that the rate of consumer price growth has slowed from 2.2% to 1.8%. The final inflation figures are expected to be published just before the meeting, which should confirm the preliminary estimates.
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