05.11.202413:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on November 5th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

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In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.0888 level as a key entry point. Let's look at the 5-minute chart to analyze what happened there. The increase and formation of a false breakout at that level led to a short entry for the euro, but a decline did not materialize. The technical outlook for the second half of the day remains unchanged.

For Opening Long Positions on EUR/USD:

Given the complete lack of data from the Eurozone, it's not surprising that the euro managed a slight recovery. Upcoming U.S. events, including the presidential election, PMI data for the services sector, and the composite PMI for October, could influence further movements. A downward revision could spark renewed buying interest, potentially pushing the pair back toward the weekly high. Additionally, trade balance data and the ISM Services PMI should be considered. If the euro declines, only a false breakout around the support at 1.0888—which acted as resistance this morning—would serve as a suitable entry condition for building long positions aimed at extending gains to 1.0914. A breakout and retest of this range would confirm a valid entry point for buying, targeting a move up to 1.0935. The ultimate target is 1.0952, where I plan to take profits. If EUR/USD declines and there's no buyer activity near 1.0888 in the second half of the day, the euro risks falling further. In this case, I'll enter only after a false breakout forms around the next support at 1.0859. I plan to open long positions on a bounce from 1.0833 immediately, targeting a 30–35 point intraday correction.

For Opening Short Positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers will aim to protect resistance at 1.0914. A false breakout, paired with strong U.S. ISM manufacturing data, would provide an ideal entry point for short positions, targeting a decline to support at 1.0888. The moving averages are clustered here, lending support to buyers. Therefore, a breakout and consolidation below this range, along with a retest from below, would offer another entry for a move down to 1.0859, halting buyers' upward plans. The ultimate target is 1.0833, where I'll take profits. If EUR/USD moves up in the second half of the day without a bearish presence at 1.0914—which is likely—buyers will have a chance to establish a new uptrend. In this case, I'll postpone selling until the next resistance at 1.0935, where I will also sell, but only after a failed consolidation. I plan to open short positions on a rebound from 1.0952 immediately, aiming for a 30–35 point downward correction.

The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for October 29 again showed a sharp rise in short positions with a slight increase in longs. Note that the data doesn't reflect recent U.S. labor market indicators or the full market picture following recent polls on the presidential election. Additionally, this week's FOMC meeting, where rates will likely be cut, renders the report somewhat obsolete. According to the COT report, long non-commercial positions increased by 6,154 to a level of 159,313, while short non-commercial positions rose by 27,934 to 209,617, resulting in a 543-point increase in the gap between long and short positions.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:

Trading is occurring around the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating a sideways market.

Note: The author analyzes moving average periods and prices on the H1 chart, which differs from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands:

In case of a decline, the lower band around 1.0860 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

Moving Average: Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period – 50 (yellow on the chart); Period – 30 (green on the chart).
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12, Slow EMA – period 26, SMA – period 9.
Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
Non-commercial Traders: Speculators like individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes under certain requirements.
Long Non-commercial Positions: Represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
Short Non-commercial Positions: Represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
Total Non-commercial Net Position: The difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

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