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Analysis of Trades and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen
The test of the 153.77 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had not yet entered negative territory, so I refrained from selling in the current bullish market. While the pair moved significantly downward, I focused on a buy-on-bounce strategy near the 153.27 price level. I had thoroughly discussed this strategy in my morning forecast. This trade aligned with the trend, allowing me to capture over 100 points of profit with clear potential.
Donald Trump's victory weakened the Japanese yen and further bolstered the US dollar. With no US data scheduled for the second half of the day, market sentiment is unlikely to change. I remain bullish on the dollar and expect the yen to decline further. However, I prefer to act during corrections, similar to my strategy in the first half of the day. For the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy SignalScenario #1:I plan to buy USD/JPY today at around 154.19 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 154.98 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 154.98, I will exit the buy trades and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point downward move. The pair is expected to rise further today in continuation of the uptrend.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2:I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 153.77 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This should limit the pair's potential for further decline and trigger an upward reversal. A rise to the target levels of 154.19 and 154.98 can then be expected.
Sell SignalScenario #1:I plan to sell USD/JPY today if the 153.77 level (red line on the chart) is broken, leading to a sharp decline in the pair. The sellers' key target will be 152.95, where I plan to exit sell trades and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point upward move. Selling pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to fall.
Scenario #2:I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 154.19 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This should limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline to the target levels of 153.77 and 152.95 can then be expected.
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Important Notes:Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions, especially before major news releases, to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news events, always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you risk losing your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Impulsive trading decisions based on current market conditions are typically unprofitable for intraday traders.
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