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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair dropped to its previous low on Wednesday but failed to close below it. This leaves a glimmer of hope for the pound's recovery. However, another decline remains likely today, as the meetings of the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) are expected to significantly influence the market. Market movements during the day will hinge on the outcomes of these meetings. The pound's potential fall cannot be dismissed simply because yesterday's low was not broken.
The wave pattern is clear and unambiguous. The latest downward wave broke below the prior low, while the subsequent upward wave failed to do the same. This confirms the ongoing "bearish" trend. A corrective upward wave from the 1.2931 level was anticipated, but as noted earlier, technical signals alone are insufficient for the pound's recovery. Bulls lack both the will and the opportunity to mount a strong attack.
On Wednesday, there was no major news affecting the pound. However, the U.S. elections supported the dollar, pushing the pound lower. Currently, attention should be focused on the 1.2892–1.2931 zone. A reversal within this range, favoring the dollar and accompanied by a close below it, could pave the way for further pound declines. In my view, the likelihood of this scenario is high. Bullish traders remain weak and lack motivation to act.
Today, the BoE is expected to announce monetary policy easing, which could provide further justification for pound selling. If Governor Andrew Bailey adopts a dovish tone and signals potential rate cuts in upcoming meetings, the pound may face another sharp drop.
The FOMC meeting will also be critical. Chair Jerome Powell could take a dovish stance due to the recent cooling in the U.S. labor market in October. While some analysts view the weak October numbers as an anomaly, the Fed may still respond to these developments.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has rebounded twice from the 1.3044 correction level, suggesting a resumption of the downtrend toward the 61.8% correction level at 1.2745. Bulls have been unable to close above the 1.3044 level, and all indicators currently favor bearish dominance and further declines for the pound.
Sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders became slightly less bullish last week but remains overall positive. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 7,967, while short positions increased by 253. Bulls continue to hold a significant advantage, with 132,000 long positions compared to 66,000 short positions —a gap of 66,000.
In my opinion, the pound still has room to fall, but the COT data does not yet reflect a strong increase in bearish sentiment. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has grown from 102,000 to 132,000, while short positions have risen from 55,000 to 66,000. I anticipate that professional traders will gradually reduce long positions or increase short positions, as seen currently with the euro. This adjustment appears to be in its early stages, as indicated by wave analysis.
Thursday's economic calendar includes at least five significant events, with the potential to heavily influence trader sentiment.
Selling opportunities for the pair were available following a rebound from the 1.3044 level on the 4-hour chart, with a target of 1.2931, which has already been achieved. A close below the 1.2892 level would provide another opportunity to sell, with a target range of 1.2788–1.2801. Conversely, a close above the 1.2931 level could open the door for buying opportunities, targeting 1.3054.
However, the strong news flow today may trigger sharp and significant price movements.
Fibonacci grids are plotted at 1.2892–1.2298 on the hourly chart and 1.4248–1.0404 on the 4-hour chart.
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