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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair showed growth on Thursday, but recent weeks have been marked by sideways movement, also known as consolidation. This movement is somewhat unusual, as trader activity has remained relatively high throughout. Nevertheless, it reflects a period of consolidation. Following Thursday's rise, traders may resume shorting the pair toward its two most recent lows.
The wave structure appears straightforward. The most recent completed upward wave failed to surpass the peak of the prior wave, while the latest downward wave broke its previous low by a few points. This confirms the continuation of a bearish trend. Additionally, the recent waves are nearly identical in size, indicating a consolidation phase.
Thursday brought a double dose of news for the pound. First, the Bank of England predictably cut rates by 0.25%. Later, the Federal Reserve also reduced rates by 0.25%. Both decisions were widely anticipated but carry different implications. While Jerome Powell hinted at a potential pause in December (contrary to market expectations), Andrew Bailey indicated that the Bank of England is prepared to continue easing monetary policy.
Both central banks will continue to base their decisions on key economic data, such as inflation, wages, and labor market conditions. Thus, it is too early to conclude that the Fed will pause in December or that the BoE will continue easing. However, the signals from both meetings suggest further potential rate adjustments. In my view, these developments will likely encourage bearish traders to maintain their pressure on the market.
Today's news background is expected to be weak, though some residual market activity may persist, reflecting the significant movements seen earlier this week.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded for the second time from the 1.3044 corrective level but began a new upward movement toward 1.3044 after a bullish divergence in the CCI indicator. A third rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and potentially lead to a decline toward the 61.8% corrective level at 1.2745. No new divergences are observed in any indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
The sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders became slightly less bullish last week but remains positive overall. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 7,967, while short positions increased by 253. Bulls still hold a substantial advantage, with 132,000 long positions compared to 66,000 shorts.
In my view, the pound faces further downward risks, but the COT reports do not yet show a significant increase in bearish positions. Over the last three months, long positions have risen from 102,000 to 132,000, while short positions have grown from 55,000 to 66,000. I believe professional traders may gradually reduce their long positions or increase shorts, as most bullish factors for the pound have already been priced in. Technical analysis suggests this process could begin soon—or may have already started, based on wave patterns.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and UK
Friday's economic calendar includes only one significant event. The influence of the news background on trader sentiment is likely to be limited today.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:Selling the pair was viable after a rebound from the 1.3044 level on the 4-hour chart, targeting 1.2931. This target has been achieved twice. Another rebound from the 1.3044 or 1.3054 levels would again justify short positions, with targets at 1.2931, 1.2892, and 1.2845. I would not recommend buying the pair while the bearish trend persists.
Fibonacci grids are plotted at 1.2892–1.2298 on the hourly chart and at 1.4248–1.0404 on the 4-hour chart.
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