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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.0773 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, as seen on the chart, no significant decline occurred. After returning to the 1.0773 level, I decided to exit the trade with minimal loss to avoid further risk.
There is no major data in the second half of the day that could significantly shift the market. Only a substantial divergence between the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations, would trigger volatility. FOMC member Michelle Bowman is unlikely to add anything new to Jerome Powell's statements from yesterday. For intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
- Scenario 1: Consider buying the euro when the price reaches 1.0793 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.0844. At 1.0844, I plan to exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point downward move. A significant rally in the euro is unlikely today.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.
- Scenario 2: Buying the euro is also an option if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0757 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth can be expected toward the target levels of 1.0793 and 1.0844.
Sell Signal
- Scenario 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.0757 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0716, where I plan to exit the market and open buy positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 point upward move. Selling pressure on the pair will return if the euro fails to break above the daily high.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.
- Scenario 2: Selling the euro is also an option if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0793 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline can be expected toward the target levels of 1.0757 and 1.0716.
What's on the Chart?
- Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line: Projected price for setting Take Profit or securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line: Projected price for setting Take Profit or securing profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, consider the MACD's overbought and oversold zones.
Important for Beginner Forex Traders Beginner traders must exercise caution when entering the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't practice proper money management or trade with large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions often result in losses for intraday traders.
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