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In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.0598 level and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. Let's examine the 5-minute chart to understand what happened. A decline and the formation of a false breakout at this level provided a good entry point for long positions, resulting in the pair's rise of over 30 points. The technical outlook for the second half of the day has not been revised.
Given the absence of Eurozone data, the buying scenario around 1.0598 played out. Now, the focus shifts to a critical US report that could either support the euro or trigger a deeper sell-off, continuing the bearish trend. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October is expected. Higher-than-expected inflation could weaken the euro and bolster the dollar, while softer inflationary pressure might aid the euro's recovery.
If the pair declines, a false breakout at 1.0598, as mentioned earlier, would provide an opportunity to open long positions, targeting a correction toward 1.0631, where the pair is currently trading. A breakout and subsequent retest of this range will confirm a proper entry point for buying, aiming for 1.0661. The furthest target will be the 1.0694 high, where profits will be taken.
If EUR/USD continues to fall and lacks activity near 1.0598 in the second half of the day, the euro will likely continue building its bearish market. In such a case, I will consider entering long positions only after a false breakout near the next support at 1.0569. I plan to open long positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0545, targeting an intraday correction of 30-35 points.
If the pair rises, sellers will aim to protect the 1.0631 resistance, where the pair is currently trading. A false breakout there after the release of US data will provide an opportunity to open short positions, targeting support at 1.0598. A breakout and consolidation below this range, followed by a retest from below, will be another viable option for selling, aiming for a new monthly low at 1.0569. This move would further strengthen the pair's downtrend. The furthest target will be the 1.0545 level, where profits will be taken.
If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day after the data release, ignoring statements from Federal Reserve representatives advocating a cautious approach to rate cuts, euro buyers will have a chance to build a correction. In such a case, I will postpone selling until the next resistance at 1.0661 is tested. I will sell there only after a failed consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0694, targeting a downward correction of 30-35 points.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for November 5 showed a slight increase in long positions and a sharp reduction in short ones. However, the data does not reflect the outcome of the US presidential election of Donald Trump or the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. Therefore, it is not meaningful to focus on these figures for analysis. Given recent developments, pressure on risk assets is likely to persist, and the US dollar is expected to remain in strong demand.
The COT report indicates:
Moving Averages:The pair is trading near the 30- and 50-day moving averages on the hourly chart, indicating market uncertainty.
Bollinger Bands:In the event of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator near 1.0598 will act as support.
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