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The recent U.S. inflation data suggest a potential pause in the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting process, and Jerome Powell explicitly stated this. This comes alongside producer price data, which shows that growth accelerated from 1.9% to 2.4%. By year-end, discussions about a potential rate hike could resurface, as the data hint at the possibility of inflation rebounding.
Additionally, industrial production decline in the Eurozone accelerated from -0.1% to -2.8%, resembling an outright collapse.
However, the dollar failed to strengthen. The U.S. currency remained flat, partly due to its already massive overbought condition following its relentless and substantial rally since the presidential elections. More significantly, data on Chinese retail sales halted the dollar's rise, which showed that growth accelerated from 3.2% to 4.8%, surpassing the forecast of 4.0%. Concerns about a slowing Chinese economy have been one of the key drivers of the dollar's strength since late September. Signs of recovery in China's economic activity could serve as a basis for a potential reversal and the start of a weakening dollar trend.
That said, the dollar is likely to continue its upward trajectory today. According to forecasts, U.S. industrial production growth is expected to accelerate from 1.7% to 1.9%, while industrial production decline should ease from -0.6% to -0.4%.
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