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Disappointment is a harsh word for a currency. It seemed that the sterling's lower vulnerability to Donald Trump's trade tariffs, the stability of Labour Party politics, and the Bank of England's slow pace of monetary easing could serve as a safety cushion for the British pound. However, a 6% plunge in GBP/USD from its September highs tells a different story. For much of the year, traders believed that the sterling could become the top-performing currency among the G10. That disappointment led to a sharp reduction in long positions and the instrument's dramatic fall.
From January to September, the US had an $8.2 billion trade surplus with Britain. Combined with the high share of the services sector in its economy, this makes the UK less vulnerable to Donald Trump's tariffs than China or the eurozone. However, Bank of England official Catherine Mann believes the country will still suffer. Import tariffs could accelerate inflation and weaken the position of the UK's main trading partner – the EU.
Moreover, economic metrics within the kingdom are not as bright as they were in the first half of the year. GDP grew by a modest 0.1% in July-September, and concerns about the negative impact of trade wars have led the derivatives market to increase the expected scope of the Bank of England's monetary expansion in 2025 from 57 to 66 basis points. The Federal Reserve is expected to implement three rate cuts, which should theoretically support GBP/USD. Unfortunately, the UK lacks a Donald Trump of its own.
Risk dynamics of GBP's reversal
For a long time, the pound sterling led the G10 currency race, but the Republican victory in the US elections turned the situation upside down. Traders believe the divergence in economic growth between the US and Great Britain outweighs the differing speeds of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, prompting them to sell GBP/USD. Pound reversal risks point to a high likelihood of a protracted downtrend against the US dollar.
Can the UK's busy economic calendar change anything? Bloomberg experts predict an annual acceleration in inflation from 1.7% to 2.2% in October. More importantly, the potential return of service prices above 5% could be significant. This component of the CPI is the main weapon in the hands of the Bank of England's hawks. A pause in the cycle of monetary policy easing is expected in December, with a resumption of repo rate cuts in February.
No one expects remarkable performance from UK business activity in November, while a contraction in October's retail sales could be another blow to the sterling. The fragility of the economy prevents the pound sterling from counterattacking the US dollar.
Technical outlook for GBP/USD
On the daily chart, a downtrend shaped by the Three Indians pattern is gaining momentum. It makes sense to hold short positions opened at 1.284 and add more of them during pullbacks. Target levels range from 1.250 to 1.230.
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