19.11.202413:48 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on November 19th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

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In my morning forecast, I focused on the level of 1.2643 as the basis for making market entry decisions. Let's analyze the 5-minute chart to review the developments. While a decline occurred, it did not result in a false breakout. The technical picture for the second half of the day has since been revised.

For Opening Long Positions on GBP/USD:

The British pound weakened due to the absence of UK economic data, even ahead of the parliamentary hearings mentioned in my morning forecast. Alongside the Bank of England governor's speech, U.S. data on building permits and new housing starts could influence the market. Strong U.S. data may increase pressure on the pound, creating opportunities for long positions.

A decline and the formation of a false breakout near the 1.2599 support level, coinciding with the monthly low, would confirm a suitable entry point for long positions. Targets include a recovery toward 1.2643, which acted as support earlier. A breakout and subsequent retest of this range would provide a new long entry, with further targets at 1.2686 and 1.2723, where I plan to lock in profits. If GBP/USD continues to decline without significant activity from buyers at 1.2599, the bearish trend will likely persist, opening the way to 1.2560. A false breakout at this level would signal another opportunity to buy. Alternatively, I plan to buy on a rebound from the 1.2520 minimum, targeting a 30-35 point intraday correction.

For Opening Short Positions on GBP/USD:

Despite the returning pressure on the pair at the monthly low, I will wait for clear signals. A false breakout at the resistance level of 1.2643, supported by moving averages, would offer a suitable entry point for short positions, targeting a decline to 1.2599. A breakout and retest of this range from below would pressure bullish positions, triggering stop-losses and opening the way to 1.2560. The final target will be 1.2520, where I will take profits.

If GBP/USD rises after the data release and the news is ignored, buyers could attempt a stronger upward correction, keeping trading within the channel. Bears would then retreat to the resistance at 1.2686, where I will consider selling after a false breakout. If no downward movement occurs, I will look for short positions on a rebound at 1.2723, aiming for a 30-35 point correction.

COT Report Insights:

The November 12 COT report showed reductions in both long (-745) and short (-11,711) positions. While fewer traders are selling the pound at current levels, there remains a lack of buyers, limiting the potential for a significant correction. Weak UK GDP data could further reduce the appeal of the pound.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:Trading below the 30- and 50-day MAs indicates continued downward pressure on the pound.

Bollinger Bands:The lower band at 1.2620 provides key support in case of further declines.

Indicator Descriptions:

Moving Average (MA): Identifies the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise.
- 50-period MA: Marked in yellow on the chart.
- 30-period MA: Marked in green on the chart.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Tracks momentum and trend changes.
- Fast EMA: Period 12.
- Slow EMA: Period 26.
- Signal Line (SMA): Period 9.
Bollinger Bands: Measures price volatility and identifies potential reversal zones.
- Period: 20.
Non-commercial Traders: Includes speculators such as hedge funds and institutions using futures markets for speculative purposes.
- Long Positions: Total long open positions held by non-commercial traders.
- Short Positions: Total short open positions held by non-commercial traders.
- Net Non-commercial Position: The difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

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