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The test of the price level at 154.14 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential, especially given the pressure on the dollar during the first half of the day. Shortly after, a second test of the 154.14 level coincided with the MACD indicator being in the overbought zone. This led to the realization of Scenario #2 for selling, resulting in a drop in the dollar by more than 60 pips.
Despite remarks by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda that significantly impacted financial markets and strengthened the yen, the US dollar is gradually regaining its dominant position. Although Ueda emphasized the need to maintain current monetary policy measures to raise interest rates, he refrained from hinting at possible future changes, which caused investor anxiety.
Today's data on changes in equipment orders in Japan confirmed economists' forecasts of steady growth in this sector. In particular, amid the global economic recovery, Japanese manufacturers have resumed investments in capital assets, signaling optimism among businesses. However, this has not significantly supported the yen, which continues to lose ground against the dollar. I will focus primarily on Scenario #1 and #2 for the intraday strategy.
Scenario #1:
Plan to buy USD/JPY today if the pair reaches the entry point around 155.64 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 156.50 (thicker green line). Around 156.50, I plan to exit the buys and open sell positions in anticipation of a 30–35 pip move in the opposite direction. Growth is possible, but it's better to buy on corrections. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting to rise.
Scenario #2:
I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 155.04 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Expected targets for this move are 155.64 and 156.50.
Scenario #1:
The plan is to sell USD/JPY today after the 155.04 level is breached (red line on the chart), likely leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 153.74, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions, expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction. Downward pressure on the pair could persist, especially in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to decline.
Scenario #2:
I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 155.64 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. Expected targets for this move are 155.04 and 154.25.
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