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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 323.6% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.0532 and began rising toward the 261.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0662. However, the bulls were once again unable to reach the target level, and today they have lost momentum—the pair is moving back toward the 1.0532 level. I still believe that the likelihood of closing below this level and continuing the decline toward 1.0420 is higher.
The wave structure is clear. The last completed upward wave failed to surpass the previous peak, while the ongoing downward wave easily broke the last two lows. This indicates that the "bearish" trend remains intact. Bulls have completely lost control of the market. Regaining control would require substantial effort, which they are unlikely to achieve soon. To reverse the current trend, the pair would need to rise above the 1.0800 level, which seems improbable in the short term.
On Tuesday, the news had little impact on traders. The final inflation report for October in the Eurozone matched the preliminary estimate. U.S. building permits and housing starts for October were also in line with forecasts. Consequently, traders lacked significant market-moving information, and the euro lacked opportunities for growth. For several days, bulls have struggled to lift the pair from its recent lows. However, bears have consistently regained control, and their advantage is evident. I do not see any events on this week's calendar that could significantly support the bulls. Christine Lagarde's speech today is unlikely to differ from her Monday remarks.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to the 100% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.0603, rebounded, and reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar. Simultaneously, a "bearish" divergence appeared on the CCI and RSI indicators. These signals suggest that the euro's decline has resumed and may continue for several weeks. The first target is the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.0436.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
According to the Commitments of Traders (COT) report, speculators added 103 long positions while closing 14,113 short positions last week. The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category has turned "bearish." Speculators now hold 160,000 long positions and 167,000 short positions.
For eight consecutive weeks, major players have been reducing their exposure to the euro. In my view, this indicates the emergence of a new "bearish" trend or, at the very least, a strong global correction. The primary factor for the dollar's earlier decline—expectations of FOMC policy easing—has played out, and the market no longer has reasons to sell the dollar. While new factors may emerge over time, further strengthening of the U.S. dollar appears more likely. Technical analysis also supports the beginning of a long-term "bearish" trend. Therefore, I anticipate a prolonged decline in the EUR/USD pair. The latest COT report does not suggest a shift toward a "bullish" trend.
News Calendar for the USA and Eurozone:
On November 20, the economic calendar contains only one entry. Today's news is expected to have a limited impact on market sentiment.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling could be considered if the pair rebounded from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.0662. The target has been reached. Closing below this level supported holding sell positions targeting 1.0603 and 1.0532, both of which have been achieved. Today, a rebound from 1.0603 suggests the possibility of opening new sell positions targeting 1.0532 and 1.0420.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1003 to 1.1214 on the hourly chart and from 1.0603 to 1.1214 on the 4-hour chart.
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