22.11.202412:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

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On the last day of the week, before the European session began, the USD/CAD pair showed a slight increase. However, it lacks strong buying pressure, keeping it below the psychological threshold of 1.4000. This is due to varied market signals.

More positive economic news from Canada, particularly the CPI data published on Tuesday, influenced investor sentiment. It reduced expectations for a significant rate cut by the Bank of Canada. Nevertheless, the recovery in oil prices supports the Canadian dollar, creating pressure on the USD/CAD pair.

At the same time, expectations of a tighter monetary policy continue to support the US dollar, adding resilience to its position.

From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair has demonstrated some resilience above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart.

The subsequent rise, along with positive oscillators on the daily chart, suggests that the least resistant path for spot market prices is upward. However, the lack of significant buying interest raises concerns about sustained upward momentum.

For the bears, the key level to break lies around 1.3900. If the price breaks through this level, it could initiate a further decline toward intermediate support at 1.3855 and the monthly low near 1.3820. Below that, the round level of 1.3800 becomes significant, and a decisive break below this point could set the stage for deeper losses.

On the other hand, if the price reliably closes above the round level of 1.4000, it will signal further upward movement. This could allow the USD/CAD pair to surpass the weekly high and aim for the next resistance levels.

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