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The test of the 1.2583 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pound's upward potential. For this reason, I chose not to buy. The absence of significant economic data favored buyers, enabling the trading instrument to return to the weekly high. However, important reports on US GDP and inflation are upcoming, and strong data is likely to renew pressure on the pair.
Fluctuations in US income and spending levels can have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Rising incomes may boost consumer demand, which could, in turn, drive inflation. An increase in consumption without a corresponding rise in supply often leads to higher prices, creating additional challenges for the Fed. Conversely, declining consumer spending could indicate growing economic instability. In such a scenario, the Fed might consider lowering interest rates as early as December to stimulate investments and consumption. Changes in income levels may also affect the financial stability of various groups, influencing social programs and the tax policies of the incoming Trump administration.
If US economic data proves strong, the dollar will likely strengthen, causing the pound to decline further. For my intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching 1.2622 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.2662 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2662, I will exit purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point downward correction. A rise in the pound today is only expected after weak US data.
Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.2596 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and may trigger an upward reversal. Expect a rise to the 1.2622 and 1.2662 levels.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound if the price breaks below 1.2596 (red line on the chart), likely resulting in a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.2556, where I will close sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20-25 point upward correction. Sellers are likely to reemerge if the daily high is breached.
Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.2622 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and may trigger a downward reversal. Expect a decline to the 1.2596 and 1.2556 levels.
Beginner traders in the forex market should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. Before significant fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Failing to do so could result in losing your entire deposit, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaForex lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaForex, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
