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The wave structure remains straightforward. The most recent completed downward wave broke below the low of the previous wave, while the current upward wave has yet to break the previous peak. This confirms that the bearish trend is still intact. Bulls have lost momentum, and for the bearish trend to reverse, the pair must rise above the 1.0611 level.
The fundamental backdrop on Thursday was nearly nonexistent. The inflation report from Germany was somewhat significant, but traders showed little interest in the data. Inflation rose from 2% to 2.2%, in line with expectations, while core inflation remained at 2.4%, slightly below the forecast of 2.6%. These figures were slightly more favorable than anticipated.
In my view, the current level of inflation in Germany is unlikely to prompt a shift in the European Central Bank's dovish stance. A slight rise in inflation is acceptable, provided it does not develop into a sustained pattern. However, the market seems to be awaiting today's Eurozone inflation report to draw more concrete conclusions. The euro is at a critical juncture, and today's Eurozone inflation and core inflation figures will need to exceed forecasts for the bearish trend to reverse.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 127.2% corrective level at 1.0436, turned in favor of the euro, and continues to rise toward the 100.0% corrective level at 1.0603. There are no emerging divergences in any indicators. A rebound from the 1.0603 level would favor the U.S. dollar and could resume the decline toward the 161.8% corrective level at 1.0225.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
In the latest reporting week, speculators opened 103 long positions and closed 14,113 short positions. Sentiment among Non-commercial traders turned bearish. Speculators now hold 160,000 long positions compared to 167,000 short positions.
For eight consecutive weeks, major players have reduced their positions in the euro. This likely signals a new bearish trend or, at minimum, a significant global correction. The key factor driving the euro's decline—expectations of Federal Reserve policy easing—has already been priced in, leaving little reason for the market to sell the dollar further. Graphical analysis also supports the onset of a long-term bearish trend. Thus, I forecast a sustained downward trend in the EUR/USD pair. The latest COT data does not suggest a shift toward bullish sentiment.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone
Today's calendar includes one significant event: Eurozone inflation. The impact of the fundamental backdrop on market sentiment is expected to be moderate.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading RecommendationsNew sales of the pair are advised after a rebound from the 1.0603 level on the 4-hour chart, targeting 1.0420 and 1.0320. Purchases can be considered after a rebound from 1.0420 on the hourly chart (although no clear rebound was observed) and subsequently from the 1.0532 level, targeting 1.0662.
Fibonacci levels are plotted at 1.1003–1.1214 on the hourly chart and 1.0603–1.1214 on the 4-hour chart.
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