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Higher Timeframes:
Last week delivered a significant bearish outcome. Gains achieved over several weeks, during which bulls attempted to regain control and continue the upward movement, were erased and are now history. Several strong support levels currently block further bearish progress, forming a zone within 149.19 – 148.74 – 148.13 (weekly short-term trend, lower boundary of the Ichimoku weekly cloud, and Fibonacci Kijun levels for the week and month). A breakout below this zone would open new bearish perspectives, such as a decline toward the lower boundary of the daily Ichimoku cloud (146.74) and the formation of a daily target. Beyond this, attention would drop toward the monthly medium-term trend (144.59).
If a rebound occurs, the yen is likely first to attempt to reclaim the nearest resistance at 150.78 (weekly medium-term trend + monthly short-term trend) and then aim for the levels of the daily cross strengthened by weekly resistances (153.06 – 153.43).
In addition to the weekly performance, the November monthly candle closed with a distinctly bearish character, suggesting sustained downward momentum and further strengthening of bearish sentiment.
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Higher Timeframes:
November ended with a rebound from the monthly short-term trend (164.87), marking a strong performance by the bears. On the weekly timeframe, the bears successfully exited the cloud region (160.05) and closed the week firmly in bearish territory relative to the Ichimoku cloud. The next task is to confirm this result and form a weekly target for breaking through the Ichimoku cloud.
In the daily timeframe, bears also managed to exit the cloud and establish a daily target for a break below the Ichimoku cloud (154.78 – 153.46). Beyond the daily target, the bearish focus would shift to monthly supports at 156.38 – 151.89 in the event of further decline.
Should sentiment shift, bulls would aim to restore their positions by returning to the Ichimoku cloud (160.05) and moving toward its upper boundaries on the daily (164.61) and weekly (162.98) timeframes. Within the cloud, resistance levels of the daily death cross, currently located at 161.29 (Tenkan) and 162.31 (Kijun), are also notable. As the pair rises, these targets will be tested for strength, and overcoming them with a reliable consolidation above would open new bullish prospects.
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