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Throughout November, the British pound swayed with the tides of Trump trade. It plummeted like a stone when Donald Trump announced new tariffs and rebounded as investors reassessed their stance on his statements. The acceleration of inflation and the weakness of the UK economy took a back seat, with GBP/USD showing heightened sensitivity to speeches by the new occupant of the White House.
Market expectations for the scale of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England stand at 75 basis points each—half the scale anticipated for the European Central Bank. Combined with the UK economy's lower vulnerability to U.S. protectionist policies, this should support sterling against the euro. Indeed, approximately 70% of UK exports consist of banking, consulting, and other services, which are considered less susceptible to tariffs than goods. Moreover, the U.S. trade surplus with the UK should reduce Donald Trump's aggression.
In reality, nine out of fifteen British export goods primarily target the U.S. market. Germany has only four such sectors, and France has just one. Additionally, import tariffs are expected to hurt the Eurozone, the UK's primary trading partner. Therefore, Andrew Bailey's statements that trade tensions could negatively impact economic growth and increase inflation uncertainty are entirely justified. GBP/USD prefers to wait for clarity and focuses on U.S. news, particularly Trump trade developments.
Dynamics of speculative positions on the dollar
Threats of new tariffs against Mexico, Canada, China, and BRICS nations are driving investors to seek refuge in the U.S. dollar. Speculative long positions on the U.S. currency are growing rapidly, and even a slight retreat in Trump trade at the end of autumn hasn't deterred hedge funds from sticking to their strategies. The unique strength of the U.S. economy, the global economic slowdown, and the Fed's upcoming pause in monetary easing all support the downtrend in GBP/USD.
December is traditionally a weak month for the USD index, driven by year-end portfolio rebalancing. However, some of this rebalancing may have already occurred in November. Moreover, the past strengthening of the euro and the pound has often been supported by the S&P 500 and its Christmas rally. In 2024, rising stock indices could favor GBP/USD bears due to U.S. economic exceptionalism.
The anticipation of strong November labor market data in the U.S. could add fuel to the pair's sell-off. Bloomberg experts forecast employment growth of 200,000, which would increase the likelihood of a Fed pause in January.
On the daily chart, GBP/USD shows signs of a corrective move exhausting within a broader downtrend. The bulls' inability to hold above the pivot level of 1.270, followed by a drop below the support level at 1.267, would provide grounds for increasing short positions.
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