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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Thursday, closing above the resistance zone of 1.2709–1.2734. This suggests that the upward trend may extend toward the next resistance zone at 1.2788–1.2801. However, a reversal and consolidation below 1.2709–1.2734 could strengthen the US dollar, resulting in a decline toward the support zone at 1.2611–1.2620.
The wave pattern is clear. The most recent completed upward wave exceeded the previous high by only 30 points, while the most recent downward wave failed to surpass the prior low. This indicates a potential end to the bearish trend. While bullish traders may attempt to dominate, any upward trend may remain weak, despite this week's confident buying activity.
Notably, Thursday saw little impactful news from the US and UK, yet bulls managed to make steady advances. This raises concerns due to the lack of strong justification for the pound's rally this week. Today's US reports could provide clarity on the market situation. If the pound's rise is purely corrective and US data comes in strong, a new bearish trend may begin today. Conversely, weak US data could reinforce the bullish trend.
On the 4-hour chart, the technical picture is more apparent: the pound remains in a downtrend. While the hourly chart's prolonged correction may give the impression of a bullish trend, the 4-hour chart confirms the continuation of the decline, with any upward movement appearing relatively weak. Therefore, I maintain a bearish outlook.
The pair has returned to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2728 and consolidated above it. This suggests a potential continuation of the upward movement toward the 50.0% retracement level at 1.2861. However, the release of strong US reports today could still trigger a decline for the pound, despite the technical signals. Currently, no forming divergences are observed across any indicators.
The latest COT report indicates that:
Over the past three months:
This indicates that professional traders are gradually reducing long positions or increasing short positions, as the momentum for buying the pound appears to be exhausted. Technical analysis also signals a potential decline for the pound.
Friday's economic calendar includes four significant reports, each of which has the potential to strongly influence market sentiment, especially in the second half of the day.
Sell recommendations:Selling opportunities were available when the pair rebounded from 1.2709–1.2734, targeting 1.2611–1.2620. This target has been successfully reached. New selling opportunities may arise if the pair closes below the 1.2709–1.2734 zone.
Buy recommendations:Caution is advised for buying at this time. However, the pound may see growth if US reports disappoint.
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