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Bearish players continue to update the previous day's lows daily, but they haven't achieved significant progress so far. This may be due to the pull of the monthly medium-term trend (1.0504). To advance, the primary objective remains to fully dismantle the monthly golden cross, which would require testing and breaking the final support of the cross at 1.0321. For bullish players, the closest targets today are the resistances of the daily Ichimoku cross (1.0543 – 1.0570) and the weekly short-term trend (1.0635).
On the lower timeframes, bearish players currently hold the advantage. Although the movement is slow, bears are steadily advancing. Intraday targets for further downside are the supports of the classic Pivot levels (1.0443 – 1.0420 – 1.0375) and the breakout targets for the H4 cloud (1.0418 – 1.0394). If bullish players seize the initiative and start a corrective upward movement, the key levels to watch are 1.0488 (the central Pivot level of the day) and 1.0527 (the weekly long-term trend). Breaking and reversing the trend at these levels could shift the balance of power.
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In November, bearish players tested the weekly cloud and achieved the target of breaking the daily Ichimoku cloud (1.2498). The market is returning to this support area (1.2587 – 1.2561 – 1.2498). Various scenarios could unfold during this renewed encounter. For example, a breakout might pave the way for further bearish prospects in the 1.2301 – 1.2290 area (monthly cloud + monthly medium-term trend). Alternatively, the meeting with these supports (1.2587-61 – 1.2498) could result in a rebound and the formation of a reversal pattern. In this case, the nearest resistances are the daily levels at 1.2714 – 1.2736 and the ranges of 1.2793 – 1.2848-66.
In the lower timeframes, bearish players dominate and push the pair lower. The first classic Pivot level support (1.2627) is being tested, and a breakout would shift focus to the lower supports at S2 (1.2585) and S3 (1.2505), along with the H4 cloud breakout targets (1.2550 – 1.2521). Should priorities shift and bullish players take control, market attention will turn to the resistances of the key levels at 1.2707 (the central Pivot level of the day) and 1.2740 (the weekly long-term trend), followed by the classic Pivot level resistances at 1.2749 – 1.2849 – 1.2871.
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