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The 154.18 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had moved far above the zero mark, which significantly limited the upward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar during the session.
In the second half of the day, a series of important US economic data releases are expected, which could strengthen the dollar's position. Specifically, figures related to changes in retail sales, industrial production, and manufacturing production will be in focus. While the capacity utilization rate will also be published, this indicator is typically overlooked. Strong economic figures may influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates, as consumer spending trends will play a crucial role in shaping monetary policy for next year. An increase in retail sales would suggest the economy is adapting to persistently high inflation, which could, in turn, put upward pressure on wages and prices. If consumer spending remains strong, it increases the risk that inflation will remain above the Fed's 2% target, potentially prompting the regulator to delay its interest rate reduction cycle.
For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
For Scenario #1, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the 153.94 level. The primary target for the upward movement will be the 154.42 mark. Upon reaching this level, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a reversal movement of around 30-35 points downward. It is important to ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is only beginning to rise before entering a buy position.
In Scenario #2, I will also consider buying USD/JPY if the pair tests the 153.68 level twice consecutively, particularly when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This situation would indicate that the downward potential is exhausted, leading to a likely upward reversal. I will look for a subsequent rise toward the opposite levels of 153.94 and 154.42.
In Scenario #1, I will plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 153.68 level. The main target for the downward movement will be the 153.31 mark, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a reversal movement of approximately 20-25 points upward. Renewed downward pressure on the dollar will likely occur only if US economic data disappoints. It is essential to confirm that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline before initiating a sell position.
In Scenario #2, I will also plan to sell USD/JPY if the pair tests the 153.94 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would indicate that the upward potential is exhausted, leading to a likely reversal downward. I will target declines toward the opposite levels of 153.68 and 153.31.
Beginner traders in the Forex market must carefully consider decisions before entering trades. Staying out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports is often the best approach to avoid sharp price fluctuations. For those choosing to trade during news events, it is crucial to place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, traders risk significant capital loss, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.
For consistent trading success, it is essential to follow a clear and well-structured trading plan, such as the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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