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The Australian dollar reached the lower boundary of the descending price channel yesterday and rebounded to the resistance level of 0.6273. The aussie has defined the correction limit, leaving the price to fight for a breakout below the channel line. Breaking below yesterday's low will signify the dissolution of the green channel.
If successful, the price level of 0.6171 (the October 2022 low) will be tested, unlocking the target of 0.6077 — the November 2008 low, marking the height of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis.
Coincidentally, today, the U.S. may face a budget crisis. Under pressure from Trump, Republicans blocked a temporary government funding proposal that covered spending through March 14. However, lawmakers might find a workaround and pass a new debt ceiling (as Trump demanded).
In the four-hour timeframe, the Marlin oscillator moves sideways, suggesting a possible extension of price consolidation before the critical move.
Pressure on the Australian dollar may persist today, mainly as the U.S. is set to release data on personal income and spending, with optimistic forecasts expected.
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