23.12.202417:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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At the start of the European session today, gold attempted to continue its recovery from the one-month low reached last Thursday. However, the risk-on sentiment is acting as a headwind for the precious metal.

Additionally, the hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve continues to support elevated U.S. Treasury yields, boosting demand for the U.S. dollar during pullbacks. This further limits gold's upside, suggesting that traders interested in buying the metal should wait for stronger follow-through buying signals before entering positions.

Today, for additional trading opportunities, attention should be directed to the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index.

From a technical perspective, negative oscillators on the daily and 4-hour charts signal caution before initiating long positions. Despite the early European session's recovery attempt, any upward movement is likely to remain limited and could be seen as an opportunity to sell at a better price.

Immediate Resistance: $2,630
Next Resistance: $2,643, coinciding with the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. This level represents a critical pivot point. A decisive break above it would tilt momentum in favor of the bulls.

On the other hand:

Immediate Support: The $2,616–$2,615 level, regarded as a pullback area, along with the 100-day SMA.
Key Level: The psychological support at $2,600. A break below this level could prompt a retest of the monthly low.

Further selling pressure below these levels would serve as a new trigger for bears, paving the way for more significant losses in the near term.

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