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The market can be unpredictable! Since 1950, when the S&P 500 has missed out on the Santa Claus rally, it has only managed to post gains for the year in 32% of cases, with an average annual return of 5.7%. Considering the index's 1.5% decline over the last five trading days of 2024, a Christmas rally seems unlikely. However, it's worth noting that in 2023, the stock market also missed the rally but still reached 57 record highs and increased its capitalization by 23%. Every rule has its exceptions.
The Santa Claus rally typically occurs due to end-of-year portfolio rebalancing, bonus investments from some traders, and lower liquidity, which can amplify market fluctuations. This year, the rally has not materialized, and the S&P 500 is declining for valid reasons.
At its last meeting, the Federal Reserve indicated a pause in its monetary policy easing cycle, suggesting that interest rates are likely to remain higher than investors had expected. Combined with expectations of rising inflation in the U.S., driven by Donald Trump's fiscal stimulus, this has resulted in increasing Treasury yields. It would not be surprising to see 10-year yields exceed 5%. Higher borrowing costs tend to reduce risk appetite, leading traders to sell off stocks.
Additionally, the valuation of the S&P 500 appears inflated. According to FactSet, the index is currently trading at 22 times its expected earnings over the next 12 months, compared to a 10-year average of 18.5.
Following Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, the stock market initially celebrated, with investors focusing on the positive aspects for the S&P 500. Anticipation of deregulation and fiscal stimulus aimed at boosting the U.S. economy and corporate earnings fueled this optimism. However, Congress's hesitation to approve the Republican plan to raise and extend the debt ceiling until 2027 has raised concerns about the feasibility of Trump's other initiatives.
Moreover, the incoming president's policies are not entirely stock market-friendly. Measures such as deporting undocumented immigrants and increasing immigration barriers could weaken the labor market and slow down GDP growth. Additionally, tariffs and trade wars could accelerate inflation. The market is currently acknowledging these negative factors, which, along with other bearish trends, are pushing the index lower.
On the S&P 500 daily chart, the struggle for fair value at 6,050 ended in favor of the bears, resulting in a dip below 5,980 that triggered selling pressure. Therefore, maintaining and gradually increasing short positions seems to be a wise strategy. Target levels for this strategy are set at 5,800 and 5,650.
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